trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +2.4% | -7.4% | 50% | 0% | -9.1% |
| ≤30d | 11 | -0.3% | -9.8% | 45% | 9% | -12.4% |
| ≤90d | 12 | -0.6% | -10.1% | 42% | 8% | -12.4% |
| all | 27 | +32.0% | +19.4% | 56% | 11% | -9.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +19.4% | 11% | -9.0% |
| 10% | +8.0% | 4% | -17.7% |
| 15% | -2.5% | 4% | -25.6% |
| 20% | -12.0% | 4% | -32.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Yes | 51¢ | 50¢ | $84 | $82 | −$2 (-3%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 18 | $10 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 17 | $82 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran leadership change by May 31? | May 27 | $2 | $0 | -0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | May 24 | $106 | −$23 | -22% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 24 | $221 | −$4 | -2% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 24 | $83 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 23 | $106 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | May 23 | $101 | $0 | +0% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | May 20 | $7 | +$1 | +16% |
| Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | May 20 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | May 20 | $83 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? | May 19 | $5 | $0 | -4% |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Dec 24 | $15 | $0 | +3% |
| Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Dec 12 | $12 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? | Dec 12 | $61 | +$13 | +21% |
| Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the | Nov 20 | $2 | +$18 | +856% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31? | Nov 14 | $11 | $0 | +1% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Oct 24 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Jimmy Kimmel be the #1 searched person on Google this year? | Oct 23 | $14 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Oct 23 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? | Oct 05 | $11 | +$1 | +7% |
| Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Sep 09 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? | Sep 02 | $37 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? | Aug 28 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? | Aug 28 | $2 | $0 | -23% |
| Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Aug 26 | $37 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Aug 25 | $37 | $0 | +0% |