Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:11:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F4 0xf4a9…98d5 crypto 112 markets active 2h ago coverage 627d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$19 (+0%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate96%101W / 4L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$187now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% +$16
politics 26% +$2
other 0% +$8
tech 0% −$1
world 0% +$1
economics 0% +$3
culture 0% −$11
finance 0% $0
weather 0% +$1
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 8 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 22 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 105 +4.1% -5.8% 96% 17% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 17% -9.4%
10% -14.8% 12% -18.1%
15% -23.0% 7% -26.0%
20% -30.6% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.99 per $1 lost it wins $1.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

627d coverage
Net worth$187
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses101 / 4
Open positions7
Markets (closed)105 / 112
History coverage627d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $160 $160 +$0 (+0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 96¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 90¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? No 99¢ 98¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 91¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? Jun 21 $160 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $158 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 8? Jun 14 $189 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $183 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $189 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On Jun 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? Jun 01 $181 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? May 23 $187 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,700 on May 15? May 18 $175 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 9? May 13 $183 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 4? May 05 $178 $0 +0%
Will Tesla reach $555 in April? May 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Meta (META) close above $440 end of April? May 03 $4 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in April 2026? May 03 $4 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 30? May 02 $171 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on April 28? Apr 28 $169 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 21? Apr 27 $171 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 17? Apr 19 $182 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on April 13? Apr 17 $180 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $181 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 29? Mar 29 $187 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $177 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 22? Mar 23 $186 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 20? Mar 21 $184 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on March 17? Mar 19 $184 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on March 14? Mar 16 $180 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 12? Mar 13 $184 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on March 10? Mar 12 $183 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 8? Mar 09 $181 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 4? Mar 07 $183 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 1? Mar 03 $179 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 27? Mar 01 $177 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 26? Feb 27 $183 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 23? Feb 24 $177 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 21? Feb 22 $176 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 18? Feb 19 $184 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 1 Feb 17 $178 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 15? Feb 16 $182 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 13? Feb 14 $180 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $82,000 on February 11? Feb 12 $176 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on February 9 Feb 10 $177 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 7? Feb 08 $177 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on February 5 Feb 06 $177 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on February 3? Feb 04 $175 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3,300 on February 1? Feb 02 $178 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 30? Jan 30 $176 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $2 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 28? Jan 29 $172 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on January 26? Jan 26 $172 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $160 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $160 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $158 9d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $7 11d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $4 11d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 91¢ $2 11d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $6 11d
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $4 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $189 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $183 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $189 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $181 33d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $2 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $187 38d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,700 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $175 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $183 48d
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On BUY No 100¢ $4 49d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $178 53d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 30? BUY No 100¢ $171 57d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on April 28? BUY No 100¢ $169 59d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $171 66d
Will Tesla reach $555 in April? BUY No 100¢ $2 68d
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in April 2026? BUY No 99¢ $4 68d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 17? BUY No 100¢ $182 69d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on April 13? BUY No 100¢ $180 74d
Will Meta (META) close above $440 end of April? BUY Yes 99¢ $4 78d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $181 85d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 29? BUY No 100¢ $187 90d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 25? BUY No 100¢ $177 94d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 22? BUY No 100¢ $186 96d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $186.85 · official $186.85 (match) · 237 history records