Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:55:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf4ab…31ee world 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 487d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-1%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate22%14W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$0
14 days−$3
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 30% $0
other 25% −$2
politics 20% −$2
sports 20% −$25
economics 4% $0
weather 1% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.2% -9.3% 38% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 19 -2.4% -11.7% 16% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 63 -3.7% -12.9% 21% 3% -9.7%
all 65 -3.4% -12.6% 22% 5% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 5% -10.2%
10% -21.0% 2% -18.8%
15% -28.6% 2% -26.7%
20% -35.6% 2% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

487d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses14 / 51
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)65 / 68
History coverage487d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 91¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 70¢ 94¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+34%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $40 −$1 -3%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $41 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $3 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $2 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $49 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $36 +$1 +4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $37 −$2 -5%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $35 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $64 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $16 $0 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $17 $0 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $7 $0 -5%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $49 −$1 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 27 $4 −$1 -31%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 22 $47 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 19 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 19 $3 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $48 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 15 $48 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $127 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $185 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $51 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $48 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $1 $0 -21%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $50 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $82 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $48 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $48 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $44 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $10 −$1 -7%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $3 $0 +5%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $54 $0 -1%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? Apr 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $3 $0 -2%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 13 $2 $0 +6%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $6 $0 -1%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 12 $24 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $41 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $82 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $47 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 06 $57 $0 -1%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $49 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $39 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $40 3h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 93¢ $15 9h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 93¢ $15 10h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 17h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 20h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $26 21h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $26 24h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 33h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 33h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 34h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 45h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 47h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $17 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $6 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $12 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $35 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $5 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $5 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 79¢ $37 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 76¢ $36 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $9 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $9 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $35 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.93 · official $0.00 · 292 history records