Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:44:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf4ab…3ca2 other 260 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$80 (-0%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%14W / 245L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$216per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$19
14 days−$30
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$41
sports 24% −$20
politics 8% −$8
culture 7% −$6
economics 6% −$7
crypto 5% −$5
world 3% −$3
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 70 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 175 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 259 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses14 / 245
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)259 / 260
History coverage139d
Avg bet$216
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 259 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 99¢ 99¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $435 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 16 $856 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $365 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $619 −$3 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $59 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $682 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $156 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $338 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $307 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $749 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $645 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $229 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $60 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $154 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $368 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $280 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $578 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $386 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $243 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $61 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 11 $364 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $453 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $767 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $541 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $140 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $126 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $147 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $257 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $291 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1,000 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $162 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $271 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 07 $278 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 07 $355 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $527 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $232 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $228 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $124 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $355 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $465 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $172 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $237 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 03 $66 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $595 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $324 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $395 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $144 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 01 $293 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $59 1h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 18h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 19h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $59 21h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $59 22h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 27h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 28h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 34h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 36h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $59 39h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $59 41h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $59 2d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $59 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $59 2d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $60 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $60 2d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 2d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $60 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $60 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $60 3d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $60 3d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 3d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $60 3d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $60 3d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $60 3d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.77 · official $58.77 (match) · 1438 history records