Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:26:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf4ad…fa7a crypto 37 markets active 1d ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$249 (-22%) realized −$249 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate49%18W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$8
14 days−$19
30 days−$281
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$265
crypto 26% −$6
other 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -16.3% -24.3% 46% 31% -30.2%
≤30d 37 -13.3% -21.5% 49% 38% -31.7%
≤90d 37 -13.3% -21.5% 49% 38% -31.7%
all 37 -13.3% -21.5% 49% 38% -31.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 38% -31.7%
10% -29.0% 35% -38.2%
15% -35.9% 30% -44.2%
20% -42.2% 16% -49.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 58% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$22 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$249
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses18 / 19
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage21d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +30%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$4 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 03 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 01 $20 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 01 $20 −$5 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 01 $10 +$8 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 01 $20 +$5 +26%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $286 −$262 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 31 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 31 $11 −$6 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 31 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 31 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 31 $10 +$9 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 31 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 31 $20 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 31 $7 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 31 $5 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 31 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 30 $10 +$6 +60%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $194 +$70 +36%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $351 −$71 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 27 $5 −$4 -70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 26h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 1¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $2 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 4d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 16¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 127 history records