Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:22:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
F4 0xf4b0…2c8a crypto 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 542d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$36 (-6%) realized −$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% −$1
world 22% $0
sports 16% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-38.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 2 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 2 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 9 -31.4% -38.0% 67% 11% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.0% 11% -15.3%
10% -43.9% 0% -23.4%
15% -49.3% 0% -30.8%
20% -54.3% 0% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$15 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

542d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage542d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? No 100¢ 99¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 22 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $37 $0 +0%
Rockets vs. Pistons Jan 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Magic vs. Celtics Apr 28 $34 −$34 -100%
Ethereum above $3,400 on February 7? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Suns vs. Thunder Feb 07 $52 +$9 +16%
Solana above $190 on January 17? Jan 25 $132 $0 +0%
Solana above $215 on January 10? Jan 17 $131 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk in 2024? Jan 10 $131 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $31 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $37 10d
Rockets vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 61¢ $10 149d
Magic vs. Celtics BUY Magic 18¢ $34 424d
Ethereum above $3,400 on February 7? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 499d
Suns vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 86¢ $52 501d
Solana above $190 on January 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $132 520d
Solana above $215 on January 10? BUY No 100¢ $131 527d
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk in 2024? BUY No 100¢ $131 541d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.89 · official $30.89 (match) · 19 history records