Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:03:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf4b0…d8db sports 55 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$232 (-8%) realized −$231 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate50%23W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day24.5pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$434now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$241
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +16.2% +5.1% 50% 39% -18.8%
≤30d 46 +16.2% +5.1% 50% 39% -18.8%
≤90d 46 +16.2% +5.1% 50% 39% -18.8%
all 46 +16.2% +5.1% 50% 39% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.1% 39% -18.8%
10% ← realistic here -4.9% 26% -26.5%
15% -14.1% 22% -33.6%
20% -22.5% 17% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +45% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$36 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$434
Realized−$231
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses23 / 23
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions9
Markets (closed)46 / 55
History coverage2d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day24.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Klosters: Nicole Gadient vs Mara Guth Mara Guth 93¢ 100¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+7%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) G2 52¢ 55¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+5%)
ITF Bourg-En-Bresse: Mika Petkovic vs Hugo Car Mika Petkovic 71¢ 72¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
ITF Klosters: Pedro Sakamoto vs Tanguy Genier Pedro Sakamoto 83¢ 84¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
ITF Tokyo: Hyeon Chung vs Masamichi Imamura Hyeon Chung 51¢ 50¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Matias Soto Nick Hardt 65¢ 62¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Hyeon Chung vs. Masamichi Imamura: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 55¢ 50¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Set Handicap: O'Connell (-1.5) vs Bonzi (+1.5) Bonzi 61¢ 56¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs G2 24¢ 26¢ $35 $37 +$2 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Klosters: Tina Manescu vs Adrienn Nagy Jun 18 $50 +$5 +11%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Adela Polakovicova vs Karine Sarkisova Jun 18 $50 −$19 -37%
ITF Tauste: Yleymi Lugiana Muelle Valdez vs Celia Cervino Ruiz Jun 18 $51 −$10 -20%
Ipek Oz vs. Jessica Pieri: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 −$4 -9%
Set Handicap: Oz (-1.5) vs Pieri (+1.5) Jun 18 $51 −$2 -3%
ITF Zhengzhou: Chenting Zhu vs Jia-Jing Lu Jun 18 $4 +$2 +48%
Mao Mushika vs. Yu-Chen Lin: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 +$47 +93%
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Jiaqi Wang Jun 18 $101 −$37 -36%
ITF Tulsa: Andrew Fenty vs Victor Tosetto Jun 18 $50 +$5 +10%
Set Handicap: Wild (-1.5) vs Hardt (+1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$30 +60%
ITF Samobor: Jakub Vrba vs Noa Vukadin Jun 17 $58 −$41 -70%
ITF Tulsa: Ozan Baris vs Justin Boulais Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Matias Soto Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
ITF Tulsa: Jonah Braswell vs Nicolas Arseneault Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
ITF Tulsa: Luca Pow vs Lucas Marionneau Jun 17 $51 +$31 +62%
ITF Dinard: Laetitia Sarrazin vs Monika Wojcik Jun 17 $50 +$12 +24%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Conor Gannon Jun 17 $50 +$4 +8%
ITF San Gregorio: Michelle Kelly Tikhonko vs Amy Stevens Jun 17 $50 +$4 +8%
ITF Klosters: Tanguy Genier vs Nicolas Kobelt Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $11 −$11 -97%
ITF Tauste: Viola Turini vs Diana Marcinkevica Jun 17 $50 +$16 +32%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Milica Stosovic vs Marianne Argyrokastriti Jun 17 $50 +$5 +11%
ITF Klosters: Julia Stusek vs Zoe Kaegi Jun 17 $50 +$5 +11%
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Khomutsianskaya vs Jiangxue Han Jun 17 $50 +$18 +36%
ITF Zhengzhou: Rina Saigo vs Tiana Tian Deng Jun 17 $51 +$37 +73%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
ITF Zhengzhou: Priska Madelyn Nugroho vs Yufei Ren Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
ITF Zhengzhou: Qiu Yu Ye vs Le Yi Liu Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
ITF Zhengzhou: Rinko Matsuda vs Ekaterina Maklakova Jun 17 $101 −$39 -39%
ITF Taipei: Anchisa Chanta vs Vivian Yang Jun 17 $50 +$5 +11%
ITF Tauste: Andrea Palazon Lacasa vs Yasmine Mansouri Jun 16 $50 +$4 +7%
Set Handicap: Ruiz (-1.5) vs Valdez (+1.5) Jun 16 $51 −$2 -3%
ITF Milano: Manuel Mazza vs Marcello Serafini Jun 16 $29 +$105 +365%
ITF Blois: Ipek Oz vs Jessica Pieri Jun 16 $51 −$2 -3%
ITF Milano: Leonardo Borrelli vs Gianmarco Ferrari Jun 16 $50 +$3 +7%
Dublin: Rio Noguchi vs Clement Tabur Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Set Handicap: Rehberg (-1.5) vs Olivieri (+1.5) Jun 16 $51 +$81 +158%
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Michael Zhu Jun 16 $50 +$7 +14%
ITF Tauste: Elena Milovanovic vs Claudia Ferrer Perez Jun 16 $77 −$19 -24%
ITF Maanshan: Chase Ferguson vs Taiyo Yamanaka Jun 16 $51 +$56 +109%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Mariya Yemshanova vs Patricia Georgiana Goina Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Mushika vs. Lin: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
ITF Taipei: Natsumi Kawaguchi vs Yuno Kitahara Jun 16 $50 +$7 +14%
ITF Taipei: Kayo Nishimura vs Sara Saito Jun 16 $50 −$50 -99%
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez Jun 16 $9 +$103 +1116%
Poznan: Florian Broska vs Lukas Neumayer Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Klosters: Pedro Sakamoto vs Tanguy Genier BUY Pedro Sakamoto 83¢ $50 15m
Set Handicap: O'Connell (-1.5) vs Bonzi (+1.5) BUY Bonzi 61¢ $51 1h
ITF Klosters: Nicole Gadient vs Mara Guth BUY Mara Guth 93¢ $50 1h
ITF Klosters: Tina Manescu vs Adrienn Nagy BUY Adrienn Nagy 90¢ $50 1h
ITF Zhengzhou: Chenting Zhu vs Jia-Jing Lu BUY Chenting Zhu 67¢ $4 4h
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Jiaqi Wang BUY Jiaqi Wang 78¢ $50 5h
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Jiaqi Wang BUY Varvara Panshina 75¢ $50 6h
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Matias Soto BUY Nick Hardt 65¢ $51 7h
ITF Tulsa: Andrew Fenty vs Victor Tosetto BUY Andrew Fenty 91¢ $50 11h
ITF Tulsa: Ozan Baris vs Justin Boulais BUY Justin Boulais 76¢ $50 14h
ITF Tulsa: Ozan Baris vs Justin Boulais BUY Justin Boulais 76¢ $50 14h
ITF Bourg-En-Bresse: Mika Petkovic vs Hugo Car BUY Mika Petkovic 71¢ $50 14h
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Matias Soto BUY Santiago De La Fuente 41¢ $51 15h
ITF Tulsa: Jonah Braswell vs Nicolas Arseneault BUY Jonah Braswell 45¢ $51 15h
ITF Tulsa: Luca Pow vs Lucas Marionneau BUY Luca Pow 61¢ $51 17h
ITF Klosters: Tanguy Genier vs Nicolas Kobelt BUY Nicolas Kobelt 64¢ $51 20h
ITF San Gregorio: Michelle Kelly Tikhonko vs Amy Stevens BUY Amy Stevens 92¢ $50 20h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 9¢ $11 21h
ITF Samobor: Jakub Vrba vs Noa Vukadin BUY Jakub Vrba 46¢ $8 22h
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Conor Gannon BUY Grigor Dimitrov 92¢ $50 23h
ITF Samobor: Jakub Vrba vs Noa Vukadin BUY Noa Vukadin 88¢ $50 23h
Set Handicap: Wild (-1.5) vs Hardt (+1.5) BUY Hardt 62¢ $51 23h
ITF Tauste: Viola Turini vs Diana Marcinkevica BUY Viola Turini 75¢ $50 24h
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Khomutsianskaya vs Jiangxue Han BUY Daria Khomutsianskaya 73¢ $50 25h
ITF Klosters: Julia Stusek vs Zoe Kaegi BUY Julia Stusek 90¢ $50 25h
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster Challengers 33¢ $51 27h
ITF Zhengzhou: Priska Madelyn Nugroho vs Yufei Ren BUY Priska Madelyn Nugroho 81¢ $50 28h
ITF Zhengzhou: Qiu Yu Ye vs Le Yi Liu BUY Le Yi Liu 43¢ $51 28h
ITF Zhengzhou: Rina Saigo vs Tiana Tian Deng BUY Tiana Tian Deng 57¢ $51 29h
ITF Zhengzhou: Rinko Matsuda vs Ekaterina Maklakova BUY Rinko Matsuda 81¢ $50 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $433.89 · official $435.70 (match) · 93 history records