Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:28:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F4
0xf4b2…8c41
sports · 71 markets active 2h ago
4.5score
−$2,603 -22%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,572 · open −$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
Net worth$106
Realized−$2,572
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses49 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions4
Markets (closed)67 / 71
History coverage168d
Avg bet$170
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 4 History 67 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$167
7 days+$161
14 days+$161
30 days+$333
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Spirit 90¢ 100¢ $58 $65 +$6 (+11%)
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Golden State Valkyries 80¢ 80¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? No 71¢ 100¢ $11 $16 +$5 (+41%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Vitality 48¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Playoffs Team Falcons 60¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Rams vs. Falcons Rams 78¢ $1,242 $0 −$1,242 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Suns Thunder 76¢ $513 $0 −$513 (-100%)
Pistons vs. Jazz Pistons 78¢ $530 $0 −$530 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Down 45¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Josh Giddey: Points O/U 16.5 Yes 40¢ $357 $0 −$357 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BIG 56¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - January 2, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Down $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $102 +$44 +44%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $330 +$65 +20%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 11 $239 +$58 +24%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $3 +$4 +124%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $13 +$3 +21%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $15 +$3 +17%
Will Iceland win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $18 +$1 +5%
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky Jun 10 $20 +$6 +27%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 10 $17 +$9 +55%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $65 +$12 +18%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 09 $6 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 09 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $9 +$1 +17%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $30 +$2 +7%
Will Armenia vs. Moldova end in a draw? Jun 09 $48 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 09 $11 +$6 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 09 $47 +$6 +14%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
HSBC Championships: Mika Stojsavljevic vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 09 $250 −$104 -41%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) Jun 07 $183 +$47 +26%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $26 −$19 -74%
Hamburg European Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Ignacio Buse May 22 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 22 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 22 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 22 $30 +$2 +8%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Mi May 19 $124 +$111 +90%
Spread: Pistons (-14.5) May 18 $291 +$75 +26%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 08 $8 +$3 +32%
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? Apr 08 $25 +$1 +5%
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Apr 08 $25 +$1 +4%
Jazz vs. Pelicans Apr 08 $184 +$37 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Apr 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by March 31? Apr 03 $10 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterda Mar 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Clavicular get frame mogged by Gorlock the Destroyer on stream du Mar 27 $25 −$22 -88%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will Melania's remarks not air? Mar 27 $48 +$3 +6%
Mavericks vs. Nuggets Mar 27 $123 +$22 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Mar 24 $16 +$4 +25%
Seattle Redhawks vs. Auburn Tigers Mar 24 $720 +$79 +11%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 23 $1,016 +$1 +0%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 04 $36 +$19 +52%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev Jan 31 $50 +$65 +130%
Jalen Smith: Points O/U 12.5 Jan 30 $804 −$194 -24%
Russell Westbrook: Rebounds O/U 4.5 Jan 30 $863 +$3 +0%
Josh Giddey: Points O/U 16.5 Jan 30 $981 −$690 -70%
Tari Eason: Points O/U 11.5 Jan 29 $27 −$26 -96%
Tari Eason: Rebounds O/U 6.5 Jan 29 $29 −$29 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 83% −$2,651
economics 8% +$1
crypto 5% +$29
other 3% +$20
politics 1% +$21
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm BUY Golden State Valkyries 80¢ $26 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 71¢ $11 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 90¢ $58 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 48¢ $18 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 83¢ $25 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Vitality 99¢ $95 30h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $102 40h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 83¢ $199 40h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 83¢ $121 40h
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) BUY Knicks 80¢ $239 2d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 82¢ $13 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes $0 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 2d
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky BUY Atlanta Dream 78¢ $20 2d
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Minnesota Lynx 64¢ $17 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 44¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 81¢ $10 2d
Will Iceland win on 2026-06-09? BUY No 95¢ $18 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-09? BUY No 85¢ $15 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 61¢ $4 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 84¢ $54 2d
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 93¢ $30 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +13.2% +2.4% 86% 73% +0.7%
≤30d 29 +11.9% +1.3% 86% 62% +5.6%
≤90d 42 +4.3% -5.6% 83% 55% +3.2%
all 67 -5.7% -14.7% 73% 45% -27.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 45% -27.5%
10% -22.9% 22% -34.4%
15% -30.3% 12% -40.7%
20% -37.1% 7% -46.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.82 · official $105.82 (match) · 181 history records