Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:50:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F4 0xf4b9…01bd sports 344 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$31 (+1%) realized −$74 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate58%198W / 143L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day28.1pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$6
14 days+$59
30 days−$200
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$208
other 13% +$100
crypto 6% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 +6.9% -3.2% 56% 56% -8.5%
≤30d 277 -0.9% -10.4% 58% 57% -15.2%
≤90d 341 -1.5% -10.9% 58% 55% -11.2%
all 341 -1.5% -10.9% 58% 55% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 55% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 50% -19.7%
15% -27.2% 42% -27.4%
20% -34.3% 35% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$10 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses198 / 143
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions3
Markets (closed)341 / 344
History coverage38d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day28.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 341 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 80¢ 78¢ $77 $76 −$1 (-2%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ 81¢ $4 $8 +$4 (+90%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 52¢ 60¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+14%)
LoL: Ultra Prime vs Oh My God - Game 1 Winner Oh My God 20¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Los Angeles Dodgers 48¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Over 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Arizona Diamondbacks 47¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
LoL: Estral Esports vs paiN Gaming Academy - Game 2 Winner Estral Esports 72¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game 2 Winner DN SOOPers Challengers 60¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Card) Santiago Luna 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Arizona Diamondbacks 58¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Over 51¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche Avalanche 62¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
LoL: Ozarox Esports vs Team Phoenix - Game 2 Winner Ozarox Esports 85¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Under 54¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9PM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Los Angeles Dodgers 54¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Knicks vs. 76ers 76ers 60¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins St. Louis Cardinals 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? Over 60¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Chicago White Sox 53¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner KT Rolster 17¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Under 72¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Over 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6 +$4 +79%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 14 $7 −$7 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $4 +$3 +79%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $7 +$6 +79%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $6 +$6 +97%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 14 $3 +$2 +62%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $3 +$3 +114%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $3 −$2 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $9 +$4 +44%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $5 +$4 +79%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $3 +$4 +105%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $6 +$6 +93%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $3 +$3 +90%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $5 +$4 +86%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 13 $6 +$5 +83%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $7 −$7 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $3 +$4 +119%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 13 $3 +$2 +70%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $6 +$6 +97%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $7 +$6 +83%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 +$4 +134%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 +$2 +55%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $3 +$3 +90%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 +$3 +146%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $14 −$12 -90%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $7 +$6 +83%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $4 +$4 +86%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $6 +$5 +79%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $7 +$6 +94%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 +$4 +250%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$4 +158%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 12 $7 +$6 +90%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $4 32m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $5 40m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $4 55m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $4 59m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $4 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $7 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $5 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $4 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $5 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $5 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $5 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $5 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $4 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $6 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $4 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $4 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $5 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $3 4h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $3 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 55¢ $6 7h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 51¢ $3 8h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 49¢ $2 8h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 50¢ $3 8h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 55¢ $3 8h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 23¢ $1 8h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 BUY Under 56¢ $4 8h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 50¢ $3 9h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 46¢ $3 9h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 55¢ $7 10h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 50¢ $6 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.71 · official $86.71 (match) · 1251 history records