Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:10:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F4 0xf4ba…10d5 sports 153 markets active 1h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$79 (+3%) realized +$74 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%58W / 90L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$130
14 days+$165
30 days+$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$261
other 49% −$180
world 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +18.1% +6.8% 53% 53% +5.1%
≤30d 117 +3.7% -6.2% 42% 42% -4.1%
≤90d 136 +0.1% -9.4% 40% 40% -5.5%
all 148 -1.4% -10.8% 39% 39% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 39% -6.8%
10% -19.4% 39% -15.8%
15% -27.2% 39% -23.9%
20% -34.3% 39% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$13 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized+$74
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses58 / 90
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions4
Markets (closed)148 / 153
History coverage228d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Over 38¢ 50¢ $34 $45 +$11 (+33%)
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Yes 31¢ 32¢ $12 $13 +$0 (+2%)
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Yes 34¢ 23¢ $14 $9 −$4 (-32%)
Tijjani Reijnders: 1+ goals Yes 16¢ 12¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 90 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals Jun 20 $11 +$14 +119%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $43 +$27 +65%
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals Jun 20 $17 +$33 +188%
Hakan Çalhanoğlu: 1+ assists Jun 19 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $43 −$42 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $41 +$49 +117%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $53 −$52 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $29 −$29 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $41 +$39 +97%
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Jun 18 $17 −$17 -98%
Patrik Schick: 1+ goals Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 18 $12 +$18 +152%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $48 +$32 +67%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $18 +$22 +119%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $9 +$21 +238%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $30 −$29 -98%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 17 $14 −$14 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $15 +$20 +134%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $39 +$41 +104%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $39 +$21 +52%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $18 −$18 -98%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $20 +$20 +101%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $21 +$19 +89%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $26 −$25 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $13 +$13 +97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $11 −$11 -99%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $11 −$11 -99%
Pedri: 1+ assists Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 +$20 +195%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $9 +$21 +226%
Nicolas Pépé: 1+ goals Jun 14 $6 −$5 -98%
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals Jun 14 $8 −$8 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $17 +$13 +79%
Donyell Malen: 1+ goals Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals Jun 14 $10 +$14 +138%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 +$22 +109%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$9 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $14 +$16 +114%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $7 +$13 +197%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $10 +$10 +97%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $10 +$8 +88%
Will Sierra Leone win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $6 −$5 -98%
Will Burkina Faso win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Philippines vs. Myanmar: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $7 +$13 +197%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $13 54m
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $4 1h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $3 1h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $7 1h
Tijjani Reijnders: 1+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $11 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $35 1h
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $11 18h
Hakan Çalhanoğlu: 1+ assists BUY Yes 19¢ $3 18h
Hakan Çalhanoğlu: 1+ assists BUY Yes 19¢ $9 18h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $43 18h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $43 20h
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $17 20h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $53 44h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 46¢ $41 44h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $29 46h
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $17 46h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $41 2d
Patrik Schick: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $15 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $48 2d
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $12 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $30 2d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $18 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $9 2d
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 34¢ $14 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $15 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $39 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $18 3d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 65¢ $39 3d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $40 3d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $40 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.00 · official $78.35 · 224 history records