Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:37:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf4be…efbb other 238 markets active 1h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$64 (-0%) realized −$74 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%22W / 215L
Whale WR6%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$209per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$13
14 days−$20
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$36
sports 20% −$16
culture 8% −$8
economics 8% −$5
politics 6% −$5
crypto 5% −$3
world 5% −$2
tech 1% +$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 69 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 192 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
all 237 -0.1% -9.7% 9% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 6% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses22 / 215
Whale WR (big bets)6%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)237 / 238
History coverage125d
Avg bet$209
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 237 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $56 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $92 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $204 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $339 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $251 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $198 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $450 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $234 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $692 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $643 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $280 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $117 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $583 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $200 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $117 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $470 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $376 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $125 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $156 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $124 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $431 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $397 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $214 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $162 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $305 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $293 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $322 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $59 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $59 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $606 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $122 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $190 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $610 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $791 −$2 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $93 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $381 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 05 $700 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $124 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 03 $286 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $228 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 01 $220 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $379 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 31 $210 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $290 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 31 $64 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? May 31 $520 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 30 $181 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 30 $728 −$2 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $186 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $571 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $56 1h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $6 1h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $6 3h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $56 4h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $56 6h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 7h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $56 9h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $56 13h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $56 14h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $56 16h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $56 18h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 26h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $56 28h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $56 32h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $56 34h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 37h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 39h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 40h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 42h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $57 2d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $57 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 2d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 2d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 2d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 3d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 3d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $57 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.50 · official $55.50 (match) · 1281 history records