Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:40:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf4bf…23f6 tech 486 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 32d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (94 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,008 (+2%) realized +$981 · open +$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +60% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +23% what you keep after slip
Net edge+23%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate50%239W / 239L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day94.1pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$789now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 33d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 45% −$3,598
other 30% +$142
tech 20% +$122
sports 5% −$559
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (94 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+44.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 101 -2.6% -11.9% 43% 39% -13.9%
≤30d 472 +56.1% +41.2% 50% 43% -15.9%
≤90d 478 +59.8% +44.6% 50% 43% -15.5%
all 478 +59.8% +44.6% 50% 43% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover94.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +44.6% 43% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here +30.8% 33% -23.6%
15% +18.1% 24% -30.9%
20% +6.5% 20% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +60% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +87% → late +32% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$55 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$789
Realized+$981
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses239 / 239
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions8
Markets (closed)478 / 486
History coverage33d ⚠
Avg bet$123
Trades / day94.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 478 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? Down 22¢ 20¢ $284 $254 −$30 (-11%)
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? Down 34¢ 36¢ $136 $142 +$6 (+4%)
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 17? Up 49¢ 61¢ $98 $122 +$24 (+24%)
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on June 17? Down 44¢ 60¢ $77 $104 +$27 (+35%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $92 $92 +$1 (+1%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? Down 36¢ 35¢ $73 $71 −$2 (-3%)
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on June 17? Up 36¢ 56¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+57%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? Down 69¢ 65¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $92 −$5 -6%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? Jun 17 $821 +$193 +24%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 17 $68 −$3 -4%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 17 $362 −$14 -4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 17 $382 +$53 +14%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $109 +$91 +83%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $43 $0 +0%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $86 −$7 -8%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +11%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $241 −$28 -12%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $27 +$12 +47%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $221 −$24 -11%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $53 −$52 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $54 −$53 -99%
Micron (MU) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $162 +$210 +130%
Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $7 −$2 -24%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $17 −$2 -9%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $7 +$2 +31%
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $7 −$1 -11%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $45 −$3 -6%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $6 −$1 -23%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 16 $160 +$11 +7%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $61 +$39 +65%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $216 +$48 +22%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $65 +$35 +55%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $78 +$59 +76%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $76 +$63 +83%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $63 +$41 +66%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $305 +$161 +53%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $308 +$133 +43%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $326 +$108 +33%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $234 +$102 +44%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$90 +874%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 +$27 +262%
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +98%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $364 −$10 -3%
Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $149 −$113 -76%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 14 $19 −$1 -4%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $88 +$26 +29%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $102 +$98 +97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $143 −$142 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$12 +119%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $44 +$56 +129%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $40 +$60 +152%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $42 +$58 +140%
Micron (MU) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 13 $211 −$208 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $36 −$35 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $45 −$44 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $115 −$114 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 44¢ $62 58m
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 45¢ $22 58m
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 46¢ $3 59m
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 22¢ $51 59m
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 47¢ $11 1h
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 49¢ $37 1h
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 49¢ $54 1h
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 49¢ $7 1h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 46¢ $18 1h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 46¢ $51 1h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 46¢ $23 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 12¢ $24 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 14¢ $11 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 17¢ $34 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 70¢ $138 3h
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 49¢ $43 4h
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 38¢ $11 4h
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 40¢ $39 4h
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 41¢ $8 4h
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 42¢ $21 4h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 80¢ $16 4h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 22¢ $16 4h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 22¢ $3 4h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 22¢ $1 4h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 22¢ $1 4h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 22¢ $6 4h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 22¢ $1 4h
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 43¢ $47 4h
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 43¢ $39 4h
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 44¢ $48 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $789.15 · official $746.23 · 3500 history records