Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:24:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F4
0xf4c0…f9b2
politics · 264 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$25 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$13 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$38
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses78 / 152
Open positions38
Markets (closed)230 / 264
History coverage4d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day982.3
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 38 History 230 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$13
14 days+$13
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in a Gulf country? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the 2026 South Korean loca Jun 12 $1 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 12 $0 $0 +0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $356 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $13 $0 -0%
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $67 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $262 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $213 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $152 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $139 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +16%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $21 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $14 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $151 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $9 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $115 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $14 $0 -0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $75 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 12 $75 +$1 +1%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $138 +$1 +1%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $3 $0 +4%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $8 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $87 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $9 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $17 $0 -1%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 12 $16 $0 -1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? Jun 12 $7 $0 -1%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $81 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $121 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $11 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $186 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $9 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $72 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $8 $0 -0%
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $8 $0 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $84 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $78 +$1 +2%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $11 $0 +1%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $17 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? Jun 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $11 $0 -1%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $158 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $17 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $7 $0 -1%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $129 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $76 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 45% +$9
other 29% −$1
culture 8% $0
economics 8% +$2
tech 5% +$1
world 4% +$2
crypto 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $2 25m
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $2 25m
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1 25m
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1 25m
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1 25m
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $2 25m
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $65 25m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $2 26m
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $65 26m
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $0 26m
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $0 26m
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $2 26m
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $2 26m
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $0 27m
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $0 27m
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1 27m
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $0 27m
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $0 27m
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $3 27m
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $2 27m
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $2 27m
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1 27m
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1 27m
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1 27m
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $2 28m
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $64 28m
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $2 28m
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $64 28m
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1 29m
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $1 29m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 230 +2.0% -7.8% 34% 6% -9.4%
≤30d 230 +2.0% -7.8% 34% 6% -9.4%
≤90d 230 +2.0% -7.8% 34% 6% -9.4%
all 230 +2.0% -7.8% 34% 6% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover982.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.8% 6% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -16.6% 3% -18.1%
15% -24.6% 1% -26.0%
20% -32.0% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.58 · official $31.67 · 3500 history records