Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:13:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf4c0…563b sports 621 markets active 0h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$224 (-2%) realized −$106 · open −$118
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate95%586W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$338now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$13
14 days+$13
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$83
other 11% −$145
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +2.9% -6.9% 100% 0% -6.9%
≤30d 4 +2.7% -7.1% 100% 0% -6.9%
≤90d 619 -1.8% -11.1% 95% 6% -10.5%
all 619 -1.8% -11.1% 95% 6% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 6% -10.5%
10% -19.6% 1% -19.1%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.9%
20% -34.5% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$13 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$338
Realized−$106
Unrealized−$118
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses586 / 33
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)619 / 621
History coverage77d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 619 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 70¢ 32¢ $214 $96 −$118 (-55%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 6.5 Under 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $230 +$2 +1%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Draw at halftime? Jun 25 $228 +$11 +5%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Jun 06 $100 +$3 +3%
Spread: CD Leganés (-2.5) May 28 $10 $0 +2%
Dalian Yingbo FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC: O/U 4.5 May 15 $29 −$28 -100%
Aston Villa FC leading at halftime? May 15 $10 $0 +1%
Spread: Al Nassr Saudi Club (-2.5) May 15 $30 $0 +1%
Nicolas Jackson: Anytime Goalscorer May 07 $20 $0 +2%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 May 07 $99 +$1 +1%
Michael Olise: Anytime Goalscorer May 07 $112 +$9 +8%
Harry Kane: Anytime Goalscorer May 06 $13 −$13 -100%
CA Paranaense vs. EC Vitória: O/U 3.5 Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
CF Cruz Azul vs. Club Necaxa: O/U 4.5 Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Fluminense FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 3.5 Apr 27 $10 +$1 +6%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-04-26? Apr 27 $10 $0 +1%
Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 3.5 Apr 27 $10 +$1 +8%
Club Santos Laguna vs. CF Monterrey: O/U 4.5 Apr 27 $10 +$1 +6%
Spread: CF Monterrey (-2.5) Apr 27 $10 $0 +1%
CA Tucumán vs. CA Banfield: O/U 2.5 Apr 27 $10 $0 +1%
Spread: EC Vitória (-2.5) Apr 27 $10 $0 +1%
Red Bull Bragantino vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 2.5 Apr 27 $10 +$1 +5%
CA Belgrano vs. Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata: O/U 2.5 Apr 27 $10 $0 +1%
AVS Futebol vs. Sporting CP: O/U 4.5 Apr 26 $10 $0 +3%
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $10 $0 +3%
Grêmio FBPA vs. Coritiba FBC: O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $10 $0 +3%
SC Corinthians Paulista vs. CR Vasco da Gama: O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $10 $0 +3%
SC Corinthians Paulista vs. CR Vasco da Gama: O/U 3.5 Apr 26 $10 $0 +1%
Spread: Real Racing Club (-2.5) Apr 26 $10 +$1 +7%
AC Milan vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $10 $0 +1%
Spread: Juventus FC (-2.5) Apr 26 $10 $0 +1%
Olympique de Marseille vs. OGC Nice: O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $10 +$1 +6%
Olympique de Marseille vs. OGC Nice: O/U 3.5 Apr 26 $10 $0 +1%
Spread: FC Midtjylland (-2.5) Apr 26 $10 $0 +1%
Lillestrøm SK vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: O/U 3.5 Apr 26 $10 $0 +4%
Spread: Fenerbahçe SK (-2.5) Apr 26 $10 $0 +1%
CF Estrela da Amadora vs. FC Porto: O/U 4.5 Apr 26 $10 +$1 +5%
CD Santa Clara vs. SC Braga: O/U 4.5 Apr 26 $10 $0 +1%
SD Huesca vs. Real Zaragoza: O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $10 $0 +4%
CA Osasuna vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 26 $10 $0 +3%
Spread: CA Osasuna (-1.5) Apr 26 $10 $0 +2%
Will FC Andorra win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $10 $0 +1%
Spread: CD Santa Clara (-1.5) Apr 26 $10 $0 +1%
Viborg FF vs. FC Nordsjælland: O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $10 +$1 +5%
Hibernian FC vs. Heart of Midlothian FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 26 $10 +$1 +14%
Hibernian FC vs. Heart of Midlothian FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 26 $10 $0 +4%
Spread: Heart of Midlothian FC (-2.5) Apr 26 $10 +$1 +8%
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 4.5 Apr 26 $10 +$1 +5%
Stade Rennais FC 1901 vs. FC Nantes: O/U 3.5 Apr 26 $10 +$1 +11%
KFUM-Kameratene Oslo vs. Sarpsborg 08 FF: O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $10 +$1 +6%
Aalesunds FK vs. Kristiansund BK: O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $10 +$3 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 99¢ $230 27m
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 100¢ $10 28m
Ecuador vs. Germany: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $240 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 95¢ $228 1h
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 70¢ $145 19d
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 70¢ $71 19d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 26d
Spread: CD Leganés (-2.5) BUY SD Huesca 98¢ $10 38d
Dalian Yingbo FC vs. Qingdao Xihaian FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 95¢ $29 41d
Aston Villa FC leading at halftime? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 49d
Spread: Al Nassr Saudi Club (-2.5) BUY Al Shabab Saudi Club 99¢ $30 49d
Michael Olise: Anytime Goalscorer BUY No 92¢ $112 50d
Nicolas Jackson: Anytime Goalscorer BUY No 98¢ $20 50d
Harry Kane: Anytime Goalscorer BUY No 98¢ $13 50d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 99¢ $99 50d
CF Cruz Azul vs. Club Necaxa: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 62¢ $10 59d
Fluminense FC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 94¢ $10 59d
Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 92¢ $10 59d
Club Santos Laguna vs. CF Monterrey: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 94¢ $10 59d
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-04-26? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 59d
CA Tucumán vs. CA Banfield: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $10 59d
Spread: CF Monterrey (-2.5) BUY Club Santos Laguna 99¢ $10 59d
CA Paranaense vs. EC Vitória: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 97¢ $10 59d
Red Bull Bragantino vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 95¢ $10 59d
Spread: EC Vitória (-2.5) BUY CA Paranaense 99¢ $10 59d
CA Belgrano vs. Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $10 59d
AVS Futebol vs. Sporting CP: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 97¢ $10 60d
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-04-26? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 60d
Grêmio FBPA vs. Coritiba FBC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 97¢ $10 60d
SC Corinthians Paulista vs. CR Vasco da Gama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 97¢ $10 60d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $338.18 · official $106.30 · 1286 history records