Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T18:40:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F4
0xf4c0…c7a2
other · 57 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
+$14 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$14 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses24 / 33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)57 / 57
History coverage466d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit58%
Chart Positions 0 History 57 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $76 +$1 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $6 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $38 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? Jun 27 $9 −$5 -58%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Jun 24 $2 $0 +8%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 24 $4 −$1 -27%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 09 $14 $0 -0%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? Jun 09 $4 $0 -1%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 08 $5 $0 -3%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Jun 07 $3 $0 +4%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 06 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jun 06 $17 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 06 $2 −$1 -23%
Will Isack Hadjar finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 04 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 03 $19 $0 +2%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? May 31 $42 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? May 30 $21 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 175–199 times May 23–30? May 29 $21 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 29 $22 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jun-seok not endorse any candidate? May 28 $22 $0 -2%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by over 8%? May 28 $22 $0 +2%
Will Man City qualify for the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League? May 24 $22 $0 -2%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? May 23 $22 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? May 21 $31 $0 +1%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $27 $0 +0%
Will Pacers vs. Nuggets be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 19 $26 +$1 +3%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? May 09 $27 $0 +0%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? May 08 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? May 08 $28 $0 -2%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president May 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 69°F or higher on April 5? Apr 07 $1 $0 +7%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 05 $2 $0 -8%
Will Trump create 'gold card' citizenship before April? Apr 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 Apr 05 $27 $0 +0%
Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 04 $24 $0 -0%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? Apr 04 $4 $0 +10%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 03 $8 $0 +2%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? Apr 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Apr 03 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series? Apr 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in his first 100 days? Apr 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trae Young lead the NBA in Assists? Apr 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 67°F or higher on March 30? Mar 31 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 30 $2 $0 -6%
Eric Adams a Republican before April? Mar 30 $13 $0 +0%
Trump meets with Zelenskyy in March? Mar 30 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 28 $37 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 49% −$3
world 16% +$1
politics 15% −$1
sports 9% +$22
crypto 5% $0
tech 3% $0
weather 1% −$1
economics 1% −$4
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 81¢ $36 33m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 84¢ $10 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 84¢ $27 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 9h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $7 20h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $30 20h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 22h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $41 22h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 76¢ $39 25h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $39 29h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $39 30h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 2d
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 351d
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 351d
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 351d
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 351d
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 351d
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 351d
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 351d
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 351d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 354d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 354d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 354d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 354d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 354d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 354d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 354d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.3% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 4 +0.3% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 5 -19.8% -27.4% 40% 0% -9.9%
all 57 -5.6% -14.6% 42% 2% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 2% -8.3%
10% -22.7% 2% -17.1%
15% -30.2% 2% -25.1%
20% -37.0% 2% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 190 history records