Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:14:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F4 0xf4c5…c8c1 sports 662 markets active 1h ago coverage 591d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Covers last 590d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4,498 (-3%) realized −$4,494 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate59%389W / 271L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$201per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$979est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$265now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$121
7 days−$789
14 days−$130
30 days−$1,248
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$3,007
other 24% −$1,132
crypto 1% −$554
politics 0% −$21
finance 0% +$31
culture 0% +$1
world 0% +$6
tech 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -7.0% -15.9% 51% 49% -18.2%
≤30d 127 -5.6% -14.6% 53% 50% -15.7%
≤90d 520 -1.3% -10.7% 58% 52% -12.9%
all 660 -2.2% -11.5% 59% 53% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 53% -12.7%
10% -19.9% 41% -21.1%
15% -27.7% 30% -28.7%
20% -34.8% 18% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$135 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

591d coverage
Net worth$265
Realized−$4,494
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses389 / 271
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$979
Open positions2
Markets (closed)660 / 662
History coverage591d ⚠
Avg bet$201
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 660 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 60¢ $122 $133 +$11 (+9%)
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 44¢ 40¢ $147 $132 −$15 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $124 −$15 -12%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $128 +$11 +9%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $246 −$131 -53%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $432 +$188 +43%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 18 $71 −$71 -100%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $118 −$38 -32%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $158 +$64 +41%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $107 +$18 +17%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $484 +$329 +68%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $233 −$233 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $95 −$95 -100%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $178 +$34 +19%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 17 $193 +$27 +14%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $169 +$34 +20%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $155 −$1 -1%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $438 +$80 +18%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $88 +$121 +137%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $361 +$194 +54%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $208 −$133 -64%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $147 −$147 -100%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $122 +$67 +54%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $78 −$78 -100%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 16 $52 +$59 +113%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $230 −$79 -34%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $43 +$68 +156%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $433 −$433 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $160 −$160 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $302 +$142 +47%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $476 −$476 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $139 −$139 -100%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $229 +$63 +28%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $75 +$105 +141%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $50 −$45 -90%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $117 −$117 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $113 +$109 +96%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $84 +$27 +32%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $164 −$164 -100%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $270 −$157 -58%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $180 +$27 +15%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $200 +$244 +122%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 Jun 13 $11 +$20 +176%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be at le Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $213 +$79 +37%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $122 +$70 +57%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $136 −$136 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $387 +$173 +45%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $76 +$80 +104%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $77 −$45 -59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys SELL Madison Keys 49¢ $109 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Madison Keys 55¢ $124 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 2.5 BUY Over 92¢ $1 12h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 2.5 BUY Over 92¢ $101 12h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 2.5 BUY Over 92¢ $26 12h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 86¢ $286 14h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 64¢ $164 16h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 64¢ $49 16h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 65¢ $219 16h
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina BUY Elena Rybakina 22¢ $50 18h
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina BUY Elena Rybakina 22¢ $0 18h
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina BUY Elena Rybakina 22¢ $1 18h
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina BUY Elena Rybakina 22¢ $1 18h
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina BUY Elena Rybakina 22¢ $21 18h
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina SELL Elena Rybakina 52¢ $115 18h
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina BUY Elena Rybakina 78¢ $173 19h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 16¢ $70 21h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 16¢ $1 21h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez SELL Zeynep Sonmez 73¢ $57 22h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez SELL Zeynep Sonmez 73¢ $22 22h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 53¢ $118 23h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $158 32h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Uzbekistan 56¢ $1 32h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Uzbekistan 56¢ $124 32h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 48¢ $51 33h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 48¢ $41 33h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 48¢ $9 33h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 48¢ $1 33h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 48¢ $5 33h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $26 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $264.74 · official $264.74 (match) · 3439 history records