Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:48:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F4 0xf4c6…6ee1 crypto 336 markets active 2h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$131 (+2%) realized +$131 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate61%205W / 131L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$97
7 days+$17
14 days−$243
30 days−$236
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$92
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 +5.9% -4.1% 79% 59% -8.8%
≤30d 143 -1.2% -10.7% 68% 56% -15.4%
≤90d 336 +0.9% -8.7% 61% 55% -8.3%
all 336 +0.9% -8.7% 61% 55% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 55% -8.3%
10% -17.4% 46% -17.0%
15% -25.4% 41% -25.1%
20% -32.7% 39% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$18 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$131
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses205 / 131
Open positions0
Markets (closed)336 / 336
History coverage46d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 336 Trades
no open positions (120 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 27 $61 +$28 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$4 -89%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$51 +193%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$20 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 27 $55 +$10 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 27 $30 −$30 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 27 $20 +$6 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 27 $31 +$13 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 27 $20 +$5 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 27 $59 +$10 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 27 $28 +$7 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 26 $20 +$6 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$10 +190%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 26 $29 +$2 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 26 $20 +$7 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 26 $20 +$4 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 26 $20 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 26 $20 +$3 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$3 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$3 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$2 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$2 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 25 $50 +$5 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$6 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$27 +128%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 25 $52 +$61 +119%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 25 $47 −$45 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 25 $12 +$6 +53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $51 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $25 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $55 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $30 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $20 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $44 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $20 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $20 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $6 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $51 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $1 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $8 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 990 history records