Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:32:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F4 0xf4ca…a6ec other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$79 (+4%) realized +$110 · open −$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate10%1W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day21.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$1,237now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% +$158
sports 4% −$93
crypto 3% −$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)+6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +18.0% +6.8% 10% 10% -5.5%
≤30d 10 +18.0% +6.8% 10% 10% -5.5%
≤90d 10 +18.0% +6.8% 10% 10% -5.5%
all 10 +18.0% +6.8% 10% 10% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.8% 10% -5.5%
10% ← realistic here -3.4% 10% -14.5%
15% -12.7% 10% -22.8%
20% -21.3% 10% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$873 vs −$93 · ×9.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1,237
Realized+$110
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses1 / 9
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)10 / 17
History coverage2d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day21.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $400 $404 +$4 (+1%)
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $254 $245 −$9 (-4%)
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $216 $207 −$9 (-4%)
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $142 $141 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $147 $140 −$7 (-5%)
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $79 $72 −$7 (-8%)
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $59 −$55 -94%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $81 +$873 +1080%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $99 −$96 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $76 −$74 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $77 −$75 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $44 −$43 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $214 −$209 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $186 −$181 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 41m
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $30 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 48m
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 58m
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 59m
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $59 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 4h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 4h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 4h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 13¢ $56 4h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 6¢ $30 4h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $28 4h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 4h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $59 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $406 4h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $123 4h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $154 4h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $149 4h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? SELL Yes 92¢ $954 38h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 9¢ $24 40h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 13¢ $25 40h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 8¢ $48 40h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 40h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 40h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 9¢ $23 40h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 7¢ $33 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,236.52 · official $1,236.52 (match) · 37 history records