Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:00:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F4 0xf4d0…0736 other 337 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$111 (+1%) realized +$240 · open −$129
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%135W / 192L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$82est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$1,521now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$439
7 days+$347
14 days−$1,925
30 days−$912
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$670
sports 22% +$476
world 10% +$282
crypto 1% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 105 -5.2% -14.2% 38% 38% -0.4%
≤30d 252 -19.9% -27.5% 33% 33% -15.6%
≤90d 324 -4.5% -13.6% 41% 41% -8.7%
all 327 -3.7% -12.9% 41% 41% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 41% -8.5%
10% -21.2% 39% -17.3%
15% -28.8% 36% -25.3%
20% -35.8% 30% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$29 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$1,521
Realized+$240
Unrealized−$129
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses135 / 192
Est. fees paid−$82
Open positions9
Markets (closed)327 / 337
History coverage115d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 327 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $200 $272 +$72 (+36%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $200 $265 +$65 (+32%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $200 $229 +$29 (+15%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $174 −$26 (-13%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $200 $166 −$34 (-17%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $132 +$32 (+32%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $112 −$88 (-44%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $150 $111 −$39 (-26%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $60 −$140 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 73 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $51 +$65 +129%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $152 +$94 +62%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $46 −$45 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $92 +$152 +165%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $96 −$95 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$3 -32%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $61 +$45 +75%
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 +$12 +119%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $202 +$107 +53%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$1 -7%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$28 +140%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $103 −$6 -6%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $152 +$81 +54%
Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Iraq leading at halftime? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $10 +$10 +101%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $51 +$52 +103%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$73 +238%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 +$26 +129%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $20 +$16 +79%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$27 +53%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Mahdi Torabi: 1+ goals Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Chris Wood: 1+ goals Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 +$28 +140%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$46 +227%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$31 +299%
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $92 +$146 +158%
Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$66 +429%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $51 −$25 -50%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $246 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $46 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $152 1h
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $96 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $50 5h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $92 6h
Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ goals SELL Yes 23¢ $7 18h
Austria leading at halftime? SELL Yes 94¢ $106 18h
Marcel Sabitzer: 1+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $10 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 19h
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 53¢ $61 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $309 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 46¢ $19 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 56¢ $30 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $202 22h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 22h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $20 22h
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $10 22h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $10 22h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $97 23h
Norway leading at halftime? SELL Yes 95¢ $233 24h
Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $10 25h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $20 25h
Iraq leading at halftime? BUY Yes $5 25h
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 25h
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 61¢ $152 25h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,521.14 · official $1,521.14 (match) · 695 history records