Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:57:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

F4 0xf4d0…07fc other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$35 (+3%) realized +$35 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip

Net edge-8%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate50%2W / 2L

Drawdown40%max

Avg bet$318per market

Trades / day0.8pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-7.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-2.9%	-12.1%	0%	0%	-12.1%
≤30d	4	+1.9%	-7.8%	50%	0%	-7.6%
≤90d	4	+1.9%	-7.8%	50%	0%	-7.6%
all	4	+1.9%	-7.8%	50%	0%	-7.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.8 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-7.8%	0%	-7.6%
10%	-16.6%	0%	-16.5%
15%	-24.7%	0%	-24.5%
20%	-32.1%	0%	-31.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 56% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +2% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$22 vs −$9 · ×2.48 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.48 per $1 lost it wins $2.48

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$35

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses2 / 2

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions0

Markets (closed)4 / 4

History coverage10d

Avg bet$318

Trades / day0.8

Drawdown40%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 4 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?	Jun 19	$304	−$8	-3%
US x China tariff agreement by June 30?	Jun 19	$313	−$9	-3%
Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors?	Jun 10	$338	+$25	+7%
Spread: India (-1.5)	Jun 09	$318	+$20	+6%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?	SELL No	91¢	$65	1h
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?	SELL No	92¢	$230	1h
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?	BUY No	94¢	$76	2h
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?	BUY No	94¢	$228	2h
US x China tariff agreement by June 30?	SELL No	90¢	$303	2h
US x China tariff agreement by June 30?	BUY No	92¢	$313	3h
Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors?	BUY No	93¢	$338	9d
Spread: India (-1.5)	BUY Tajikistan	94¢	$318	10d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 10 history records