Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:39:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf4d2…593c other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$17 (-11%) realized −$7 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$8
crypto 11% −$7
sports 10% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-41.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -35.6% -41.7% 33% 33% -45.7%
≤30d 3 -35.6% -41.7% 33% 33% -45.7%
≤90d 3 -35.6% -41.7% 33% 33% -45.7%
all 3 -35.6% -41.7% 33% 33% -45.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.7% 33% -45.7%
10% -47.3% 33% -50.9%
15% -52.4% 33% -55.6%
20% -57.1% 33% -60.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized−$7
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions14
Markets (closed)3 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? Yes 39¢ 36¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Switzerland be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-12%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
GTA VI released before November 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Switzerland to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 86¢ 58¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-33%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Yes 45¢ 44¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.17 · official $119.17 (match) · 22 history records