Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:48:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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F4 0xf4d5…66e1 crypto 902 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d only
✗ bot/MM pace (207 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$526 (-3%) realized −$622 · open +$96
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate70%596W / 258L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day206.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$973now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$419
7 days+$17
14 days+$258
30 days+$258
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$736
crypto 46% −$375
world 2% −$42
sports 0% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (207 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 636 -5.8% -14.8% 71% 69% -9.4%
≤30d 854 -5.1% -14.1% 70% 67% -7.9%
≤90d 854 -5.1% -14.1% 70% 67% -7.9%
all 854 -5.1% -14.1% 70% 67% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover206.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.1% 67% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 60% -16.7%
15% -29.8% 15% -24.7%
20% -36.7% 4% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$12 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$973
Realized−$622
Unrealized+$96
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses596 / 258
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions56
Markets (closed)854 / 902
History coverage13d ⚠
Avg bet$17
Trades / day206.9
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 56 History 854 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 17¢ 38¢ $114 $257 +$143 (+126%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $112 $115 +$4 (+3%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $61 $71 +$10 (+17%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 67¢ 100¢ $47 $70 +$23 (+49%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 15¢ 36¢ $27 $64 +$37 (+137%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $54 $58 +$4 (+8%)
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 96¢ 97¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+2%)
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 92¢ 93¢ $18 $19 +$0 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 14¢ 18¢ $14 $18 +$4 (+32%)
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 90¢ 92¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+2%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $16 −$3 (-17%)
Will Ecuador reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 97¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 96¢ 97¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 95¢ 96¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 94¢ 95¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 94¢ 95¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 92¢ 94¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+3%)
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 94¢ 94¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 94¢ 94¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 94¢ 92¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $6 $9 +$2 (+33%)
Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 87¢ 86¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 85¢ $9 $8 −$0 (-3%)
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 80¢ 84¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+6%)
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 81¢ 80¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +31%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $174 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $117 −$25 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$4 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 0m
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 6m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 6m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 6m
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $42 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 21m
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 28m
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 2h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 2h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 2h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 2h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 2h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $972.99 · official $973.12 (match) · 3500 history records