Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:05:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf4de…7d3d world 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate47%14W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% −$1
other 16% +$1
sports 12% $0
politics 11% $0
crypto 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 -1.9% -11.3% 30% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 10 -1.9% -11.3% 30% 0% -9.8%
all 30 -3.4% -12.6% 47% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 0% -9.9%
10% -20.9% 0% -18.6%
15% -28.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -35.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses14 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage474d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 66¢ 66¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $34 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $37 −$1 -4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $33 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $31 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $33 $0 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $8 −$1 -18%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $37 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $1 $0 +1%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2000 on May 9? May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in his first 100 days? Apr 09 $16 $0 -1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Apr 09 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Apr 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will Victor Ponta win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian Apr 08 $16 $0 -1%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 07 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 30 $16 $0 +0%
Will Olaf Scholz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 29 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Mar 25 $3 $0 +2%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Mar 25 $2 $0 +10%
Norfolk State vs. Florida Mar 20 $10 $0 -1%
Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? Mar 19 $1 $0 +0%
March Madness: 8 first round upsets? Mar 19 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 17 $12 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $93000 on Mar 14? Mar 16 $13 $0 +1%
Will Bayern Munich or Bayer Leverkusen advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 12 $14 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $32 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 66¢ $34 4h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $34 15h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $34 15h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 27¢ $9 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 27¢ $8 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $14 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 39¢ $4 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 39¢ $9 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 16¢ $6 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 16¢ $3 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $9 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $30 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $1 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $31 11d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 11d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $24 11d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $27 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $36 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $36 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $33 12d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $33 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $32 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $17 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $11 12d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 9¢ $6 12d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 11¢ $3 12d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 11¢ $5 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.66 · official $2.66 (match) · 93 history records