Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:38:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F4
0xf4e0…5dad
crypto · 64 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$4 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$9 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$9
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses28 / 26
Open positions10
Markets (closed)54 / 64
History coverage3d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day60.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 10 History 54 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? No 86¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? No 94¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 16? No 94¢ 93¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? No 96¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? No 81¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 16? No 86¢ 82¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 15? No 90¢ 86¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Yes 83¢ 79¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? No 89¢ 82¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Up 0¢ 36¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Up 77¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 81% −$8
weather 19% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 2m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 81¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 17m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $0 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $0 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $0 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 53m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -10.6% -19.1% 52% 22% -17.7%
≤30d 54 -10.6% -19.1% 52% 22% -17.7%
≤90d 54 -10.6% -19.1% 52% 22% -17.7%
all 54 -10.6% -19.1% 52% 22% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover60.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.1% 22% -17.7%
10% ← realistic here -26.9% 15% -25.6%
15% -33.9% 9% -32.8%
20% -40.4% 9% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.49 · official $9.75 (match) · 181 history records