Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:38:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F4
0xf4e1…34a5
sports · 29 markets active 12h ago
8.0score
+$76,197 +60%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$76,158 · open −$1,805
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Net worth$21,106
Realized+$76,158
Unrealized−$1,805
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses17 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$2,074
Open positions2
Markets (closed)27 / 29
History coverage459d
Avg bet$4,353
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 2 History 27 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,541
7 days+$41,484
14 days+$41,484
30 days+$64,729
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $13,911 $12,192 −$1,718 (-12%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $9,000 $8,913 −$86 (-1%)
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? Yes 13¢ $1,400 $0 −$1,400 (-100%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Casper Ruud Casper Ruud 15¢ $1,439 $0 −$1,439 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 9z 37¢ $2,678 $0 −$2,678 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BetBoom Team 22¢ $2,255 $0 −$2,255 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Legacy 28¢ $3,038 $0 −$3,038 (-100%)
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Yes $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 MOUZ 31¢ $5,054 $0 −$5,054 (-100%)
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? Yes $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2,729 −$2,678 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $2,308 −$2,255 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5,159 −$5,054 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3,048 +$3,335 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2,444 +$3,710 +152%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $2,998 +$7,473 +249%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $3,103 −$3,038 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3,037 +$2,048 +67%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2,623 +$3,368 +128%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1,199 +$1,419 +118%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $11,401 +$12,963 +114%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 08 $16,073 +$17,848 +111%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 08 $5,154 +$2,346 +46%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $1,436 −$1,400 -98%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $1,028 −$1,000 -97%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $103 −$100 -97%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $9,943 +$13,821 +139%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $9,924 +$8,350 +84%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 22 $4,963 +$5,013 +101%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Casper Ruud May 17 $1,475 −$1,439 -98%
Canadiens vs. Lightning May 03 $6,208 −$1,339 -22%
Spread: Pistons (-9.5) May 03 $2,972 +$3,245 +109%
Celtics vs. 76ers May 01 $990 +$2,043 +206%
Spurs vs. Nuggets Apr 05 $1,486 +$1,835 +124%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-03-11? Mar 23 $136 −$136 -100%
Will Venezuela win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 18 $654 +$5,742 +878%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-03-11? Mar 11 $97 +$39 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 76% +$69,677
other 24% +$4,676
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 37¢ $2,729 11h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 22¢ $2,308 14h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $9,256 16h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 29¢ $2,553 16h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 33¢ $2,605 16h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $3,048 33h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $2,444 33h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $10,471 35h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2,998 38h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Legacy 28¢ $3,103 42h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 59¢ $3,037 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $5,991 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $9 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $2,614 2d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 100¢ $2,618 2d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 45¢ $1,199 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $14,293 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 100¢ $24,364 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $6,320 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 77¢ $31,865 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 76¢ $2,056 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $5,081 6d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 62¢ $7,500 6d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 42¢ $66 11d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 36¢ $16,073 11d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $5,088 11d
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 13¢ $1,436 14d
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes $1,028 14d
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes $103 14d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 100¢ $23,764 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)+52.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +53.5% +38.8% 69% 69% +52.0%
≤30d 20 +31.0% +18.5% 60% 60% +55.7%
≤90d 26 +69.8% +53.6% 62% 62% +57.9%
all 27 +68.7% +52.6% 63% 63% +57.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +52.6% 63% +57.8%
10% ← realistic here +38.0% 63% +42.7%
15% +24.7% 63% +28.9%
20% +12.5% 56% +16.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21,105.85 · official $21,105.85 (match) · 62 history records