Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:07:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F4 0xf4e3…5296 weather 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$219 (+28%) realized +$251 · open −$32
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%11W / 14L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$318now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$177
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +29.1% +16.8% 44% 44% +36.9%
≤30d 25 +29.1% +16.8% 44% 44% +36.9%
≤90d 25 +29.1% +16.8% 44% 44% +36.9%
all 25 +29.1% +16.8% 44% 44% +36.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.8% 44% +36.9%
10% +5.7% 44% +23.8%
15% -4.5% 44% +11.8%
20% -13.9% 44% +0.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +51% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -50% → late +102% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$12 · ×2.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.3 per $1 lost it wins $2.3
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$318
Realized+$251
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses11 / 14
Open positions7
Markets (closed)25 / 32
History coverage6d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 29? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 29? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 28? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 28? Yes 52¢ 50¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 29? Yes 36¢ 34¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 28? Yes 47¢ 42¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 28? Yes 30¢ 13¢ $50 $22 −$28 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 26? Jun 27 $52 +$84 +163%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 26? Jun 27 $52 +$120 +231%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 26? Jun 26 $4 +$11 +257%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 26? Jun 26 $52 +$86 +166%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 26 $5 +$6 +120%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 25? Jun 26 $5 +$8 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 26? Jun 25 $51 −$4 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 26? Jun 25 $52 −$50 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 27? Jun 25 $52 −$50 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 25? Jun 25 $5 +$10 +202%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 25? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 24? Jun 24 $5 +$6 +142%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 24? Jun 24 $5 +$9 +202%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 24? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 24? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 24? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 24? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 24? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 24? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 24? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 24? Jun 23 $5 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 23 $8 −$8 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 22? Jun 23 $8 +$12 +142%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 22? Jun 23 $7 +$19 +257%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 22? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 29? BUY Yes 36¢ $52 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 29? BUY Yes 36¢ $52 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 29? BUY Yes 26¢ $52 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 28? BUY Yes 30¢ $52 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 28? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 28? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 28? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 26? SELL Yes 40¢ $48 2d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 26? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 2d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 26? BUY Yes 36¢ $52 2d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 26? BUY Yes 38¢ $52 2d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 27? BUY Yes 38¢ $52 2d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 26? BUY Yes 37¢ $52 2d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 26? BUY Yes 29¢ $52 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY Yes 44¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 26? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 25? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 24? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 25? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 25? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 24? BUY No 49¢ $4 4d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 24? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 24? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 24? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 24? BUY No 49¢ $4 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 24? BUY No 48¢ $4 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 24? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 24? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 24? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 24? BUY No 44¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $318.02 · official $318.04 (match) · 49 history records