Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:00:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F4 0xf4e3…b3d7 sports 135 markets active 1h ago coverage 225d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,446 (+19%) realized +$2,428 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%65W / 63L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$91est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$863now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,221
7 days+$1,378
14 days+$1,981
30 days+$2,258
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$2,368
other 18% +$855
world 14% −$669
politics 2% −$44
finance 2% −$118
tech 1% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +65.2% +49.4% 80% 80% +65.7%
≤30d 41 +2.5% -7.2% 49% 49% +35.7%
≤90d 118 -2.9% -12.2% 50% 50% +7.5%
all 128 -0.4% -9.9% 51% 51% +8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 51% +8.4%
10% -18.5% 49% -2.0%
15% -26.4% 45% -11.5%
20% -33.6% 37% -20.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +20% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$62 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

225d coverage
Net worth$863
Realized+$2,428
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses65 / 63
Est. fees paid−$91
Open positions7
Markets (closed)128 / 135
History coverage225d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $200 $196 −$4 (-2%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 43¢ 38¢ $203 $177 −$26 (-13%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $123 $152 +$30 (+24%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BetBoom Team 46¢ 46¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Vitality 46¢ 44¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 51¢ 69¢ $69 $94 +$25 (+37%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Spirit 47¢ 46¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $102 +$202 +198%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $990 +$918 +93%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $118 +$101 +86%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $91 +$26 +29%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $31 +$60 +197%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $40 −$2 -5%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 12 $50 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $114 +$59 +52%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $73 +$41 +57%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $50 +$22 +45%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 06 $101 −$28 -28%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 06 $27 −$26 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $201 +$65 +32%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $508 +$579 +114%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $121 +$113 +93%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $101 −$100 -99%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $150 +$58 +39%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $101 −$100 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $203 −$200 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $337 +$695 +206%
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo May 30 $26 −$25 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Andrey Rublev May 29 $151 +$55 +36%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 28 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Tabilo vs Valentin Vacherot May 28 $30 $0 -2%
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame May 28 $26 +$67 +262%
Roland Garros ATP: Mariano Navone vs Jakub Mensik May 27 $51 +$42 +83%
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Jesper de Jong May 27 $50 −$50 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Matteo Berrettini May 27 $30 −$30 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas May 27 $51 −$50 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Ugo Humbert vs Quentin Halys May 26 $25 −$25 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Jan-Lennard Struff May 26 $37 −$37 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Ignacio Buse vs Andrey Rublev May 25 $51 +$28 +55%
Roland Garros ATP: Lorenzo Sonego vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert May 25 $30 +$15 +50%
Roland Garros ATP: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Novak Djokovic May 25 $101 +$68 +67%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) May 24 $50 −$50 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Jesus Aguilar vs. Rei Tsuruya (Flyweight, Prelims) May 24 $51 −$2 -5%
Roland Garros ATP: Titouan Droguet vs Jakub Mensik May 24 $50 +$24 +48%
Roland Garros ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Gael Monfils May 24 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 21 $35 −$35 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karen Khachanov vs Dino Prizmic May 12 $25 +$42 +165%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Andrey Rublev vs Alejandro Davidovich Fok May 11 $101 +$64 +64%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Jiri Lehecka May 10 $51 +$28 +55%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $51 +$37 +73%
Will the fight be won by submission? May 09 $25 −$25 -98%
UFC 328: Pat Sabatini vs. William Gomis (Featherweight, Early Prelims) May 09 $31 −$30 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik May 09 $51 −$50 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alexei Popyrin vs Jakub Mensik May 09 $51 −$50 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Andrey Rublev vs Miomir Kecmanovic May 09 $50 +$22 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Spirit 47¢ $51 1h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Vitality 46¢ $102 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $102 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 1h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $130 26h
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 45h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY Vitality 53¢ $118 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 77¢ $91 3d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) SELL Spirit 61¢ $38 4d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Spirit 63¢ $40 4d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY Vitality 68¢ $50 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 33¢ $31 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 100¢ $173 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 65¢ $114 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $114 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 63¢ $73 5d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 97¢ $72 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $74 10d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 51¢ $838 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 23¢ $27 10d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $76 11d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 75¢ $201 11d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli BUY Flavio Cobolli 69¢ $101 12d
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Mirra Andreeva 46¢ $508 12d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 52¢ $152 13d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi BUY Matteo Berrettini 63¢ $101 13d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli BUY Flavio Cobolli 51¢ $121 13d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca BUY Casper Ruud 37¢ $31 15d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev BUY Andrey Rublev 32¢ $102 15d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca BUY Casper Ruud 59¢ $71 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $862.95 · official $862.96 (match) · 328 history records