Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:49:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F4 0xf4e4…8c7b other 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$24 (-21%) realized −$21 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%10W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$4
sports 33% −$11
politics 13% −$15
crypto 3% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +3.2% -6.6% 33% 33% -7.9%
≤30d 9 +3.2% -6.6% 33% 33% -7.9%
≤90d 9 +3.2% -6.6% 33% 33% -7.9%
all 32 -14.2% -22.3% 31% 31% -32.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.3% 31% -32.9%
10% -29.8% 31% -39.3%
15% -36.6% 31% -45.2%
20% -42.8% 28% -50.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$21
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses10 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)32 / 41
History coverage137d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+18%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score No 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 54¢ 24¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-55%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Over 76¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-44%)
Spain leading at halftime? Yes 75¢ 30¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-59%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 54¢ 20¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-62%)
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Spain 35¢ 10¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 +$9 +442%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 +$7 +146%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-02-06? Feb 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Leeds United FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Feb 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-01-31? Feb 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. AFC Bournemouth end in a draw? Feb 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Chelsea FC vs. West Ham United FC end in a draw? Feb 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-02-01? Feb 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 11 $5 +$3 +67%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 11 $2 +$2 +122%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 11 $2 +$6 +285%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-02-08? Feb 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Feb 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? Feb 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? Feb 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw? Feb 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-31? Feb 02 $2 +$2 +82%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Feb 02 $2 +$7 +335%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-01? Feb 02 $2 +$1 +61%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 31 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-01? Jan 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jan 29 $2 +$3 +167%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Jan 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jan 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $1 44m
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 45m
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 45m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 46m
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $1 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $1 1h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 35¢ $1 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 2 Tunisia? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 13h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 34h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 34h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 34h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 37h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 37h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Under 40¢ $5 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 3d
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-02-08? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 130d
Will Liverpool FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 130d
Will Newcastle United FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 130d
Will Everton FC win on 2026-02-07? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 130d
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-02-07? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 130d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-07? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 130d
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 130d
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-02-06? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 130d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-07? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 130d
Will Arsenal FC vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 130d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.89 · official $13.10 (match) · 61 history records