Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:16:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf4e5…22e1 other 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%13W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$21
14 days−$32
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 62% −$15
other 25% −$25
sports 9% +$12
world 4% −$2
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -11.5% -19.9% 14% 14% -12.1%
≤30d 61 +0.6% -9.0% 21% 21% -12.1%
≤90d 61 +0.6% -9.0% 21% 21% -12.1%
all 64 -0.5% -10.0% 20% 20% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 20% -12.2%
10% -18.6% 20% -20.6%
15% -26.5% 20% -28.2%
20% -33.7% 19% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses13 / 51
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)64 / 64
History coverage162d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 64 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 29 $6 $0 -4%
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? Jun 29 $57 −$2 -3%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 29 $428 −$10 -2%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 29 $167 −$4 -2%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 28 $11 $0 -2%
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? Jun 27 $18 −$1 -3%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $40 −$3 -7%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 +$1 +70%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 +$1 +72%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 +$7 +642%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 23 $16 $0 -2%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 +$3 +321%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$4 +361%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$9 +864%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $31 −$1 -5%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $2 $0 -9%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 $0 -8%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +132%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +38%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $87 −$6 -7%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 41¢ $6 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 42¢ $6 1h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $49 1h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $50 1h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $6 1h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $6 1h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 98¢ $51 1h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 98¢ $52 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $52 6h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 99¢ $53 6h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 98¢ $53 19h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 98¢ $54 19h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 98¢ $54 19h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 98¢ $55 19h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 98¢ $55 19h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 98¢ $57 19h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 98¢ $57 19h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 98¢ $58 19h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 98¢ $12 19h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 98¢ $12 19h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 98¢ $12 19h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 98¢ $12 19h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 98¢ $12 19h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 98¢ $12 19h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 98¢ $12 19h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 98¢ $13 19h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 98¢ $13 19h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 98¢ $13 19h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 98¢ $13 19h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 98¢ $13 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 284 history records