Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T11:57:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F4
0xf4e6…8e91
sports · 53 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$72 -22%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$62 · open −$8
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$43
Realized−$62
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses16 / 28
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions9
Markets (closed)44 / 53
History coverage177d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 9 History 44 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$90
7 days−$62
14 days−$62
30 days−$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 53¢ 55¢ $22 $23 +$1 (+3%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 51¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Atlanta Braves 49¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Derrick Lewis 23¢ 22¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-2%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 46¢ 34¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-26%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 31¢ 1¢ $6 $0 −$5 (-96%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 24¢ 2¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $4 +$5 +123%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Over $50M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Over $10M committed to the Hurupay public sale? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 208.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Over $20M committed to the Hurupay public sale? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $9 +$16 +172%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $9 −$5 -53%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $15 +$33 +220%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $3 +$4 +134%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $2 +$3 +223%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $4 +$7 +146%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $13 +$4 +27%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 +$6 +566%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $6 +$9 +162%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 +$5 +105%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $7 +$3 +52%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $3 +$7 +193%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $3 +$2 +82%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 08 $6 +$4 +67%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $5 +$5 +86%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $8 +$7 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 72% −$15
world 11% −$1
politics 9% −$28
other 8% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $5 15m
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 23¢ $5 19m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $5 43m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 91¢ $9 53m
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 40¢ $4 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Miami Marlins 22¢ $4 13h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 49¢ $5 13h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 99¢ $27 13h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 38¢ $2 13h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 46¢ $2 13h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 24¢ $2 13h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 16¢ $1 13h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 47¢ $6 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 46¢ $4 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 43¢ $0 13h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 51¢ $5 14h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 78¢ $22 14h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 30¢ $6 14h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 14¢ $1 15h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 16¢ $2 15h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 45¢ $9 15h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 36¢ $7 22h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $7 22h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 38¢ $10 24h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 14¢ $1 24h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 32¢ $2 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -6.8% -15.7% 36% 36% -29.5%
≤30d 44 -6.8% -15.7% 36% 36% -29.5%
≤90d 44 -6.8% -15.7% 36% 36% -29.5%
all 44 -6.8% -15.7% 36% 36% -29.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 36% -29.5%
10% -23.8% 36% -36.3%
15% -31.1% 34% -42.4%
20% -37.9% 34% -48.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.91 · official $42.87 (match) · 113 history records