Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:01:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F4
0xf4e8…008a
crypto · 182 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$169 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$148 · open −$22
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$41
Realized−$148
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses69 / 111
Open positions2
Markets (closed)180 / 182
History coverage78d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 2 History 180 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$113
14 days−$120
30 days−$124
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Up 69¢ 69¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Up 70¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Down 67¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Up 70¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $40 +$21 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $39 +$18 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $40 +$18 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $22 +$10 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $24 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $18 −$17 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $19 −$18 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$8 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $25 −$24 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $18 −$17 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $27 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $12 +$6 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $30 +$9 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $16 +$6 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $30 +$10 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $18 +$6 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 12 $24 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $17 +$6 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$4 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 05 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 05 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 05 $20 −$10 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 05 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 05 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 05 $8 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 05 $12 −$7 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 05 $9 +$6 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 05 $8 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 05 $11 −$6 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 05 $11 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 05 $11 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 05 $7 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 05 $16 −$6 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 05 $7 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 05 $9 +$6 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 05 $13 −$3 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 05 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 05 $7 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 05 $15 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$170
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $7 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $11 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $6 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $13 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $12 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $8 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $12 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $8 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $7 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $15 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $13 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $6 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $6 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $17 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $6 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $6 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $7 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $17 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $6 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $11 36m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 -11.7% -20.1% 45% 44% -17.5%
≤30d 116 -11.5% -19.9% 46% 39% -16.6%
≤90d 180 -10.5% -19.1% 38% 30% -16.4%
all 180 -10.5% -19.1% 38% 30% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 30% -16.4%
10% -26.8% 26% -24.4%
15% -33.9% 18% -31.7%
20% -40.4% 11% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.12 · official $51.94 · 962 history records