Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:19:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf4ea…020a crypto 133 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$13 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate51%67W / 64L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$189per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$71
7 days−$127
14 days−$439
30 days−$731
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$484
other 0% −$11
sports 0% −$30
world 0% −$1
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -3.7% -12.9% 29% 29% -30.6%
≤30d 38 -8.3% -17.0% 42% 39% -43.5%
≤90d 131 -4.3% -13.4% 51% 46% -11.5%
all 131 -4.3% -13.4% 51% 46% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 46% -11.5%
10% -21.7% 34% -20.0%
15% -29.3% 24% -27.7%
20% -36.2% 18% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$99 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses67 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)131 / 133
History coverage78d
Avg bet$189
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $46 $45 −$1 (-2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? No 20¢ 24¢ $31 $38 +$6 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $74 −$70 -95%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $20 −$1 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $26 −$25 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $52 +$130 +250%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $200 −$195 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $65 −$1 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $120 +$33 +28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 6? Jun 08 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $42 +$33 +80%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $17 −$12 -70%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $297 −$284 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 02 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 02 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 02 $2 +$1 +51%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 01 $4 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 01 $26 +$5 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $99 +$53 +54%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 28? May 28 $191 −$185 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 27? May 27 $39 −$36 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 26 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 26 $2 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 26 $13 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 26? May 26 $159 +$70 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 25? May 25 $7 −$7 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 22? May 22 $168 −$158 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 21? May 21 $138 −$132 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 20? May 20 $299 +$68 +23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 19? May 19 $178 +$33 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 18 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 18 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 18 $1 +$1 +55%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 18? May 18 $83 +$11 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 17 $105 −$99 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 16 $80 +$13 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 16 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 16 $18 +$11 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 16 $10 +$8 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 16 $6 +$3 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 15 $82 +$9 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 15 $75 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 15 $4 +$3 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 15 $73 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 15 $66 −$62 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 18¢ $19 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 22¢ $14 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? SELL No 25¢ $9 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 29¢ $12 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? SELL No 33¢ $16 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 27¢ $14 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? SELL No 44¢ $13 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 38¢ $12 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 13¢ $14 21h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 23¢ $24 21h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 22¢ $2 21h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 32¢ $34 22h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $20 36h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $36 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $80 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 36¢ $30 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 12? SELL No 46¢ $102 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 12? BUY No 9¢ $22 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 11? BUY No 11¢ $15 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 11? BUY No 11¢ $15 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 11? BUY No 16¢ $25 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 11? BUY No 19¢ $24 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 11? BUY No 19¢ $28 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 11? BUY No 21¢ $46 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 11? BUY No 21¢ $0 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 11? BUY No 24¢ $31 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 11? BUY No 28¢ $15 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.68 · official $82.68 (match) · 958 history records