Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:57:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F4
0xf4ec…c574
sports · 1016 markets active 1h ago
3.0score
+$16,193 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$8,795 · open −$3,788
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$28,027
Realized+$8,795
Unrealized−$3,788
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses608 / 403
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$11,728
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1011 / 1016
History coverage197d
Avg bet$972
Trades / day13.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 5 History 1011 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11,386
7 days+$6,702
14 days−$22,476
30 days−$27,912
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Team Falcons 45¢ 53¢ $17,800 $21,010 +$3,210 (+18%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Vitality 80¢ 100¢ $4,000 $5,001 +$1,001 (+25%)
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Leviatán Esports 50¢ 100¢ $1,000 $1,999 +$999 (+100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 9z 50¢ 0¢ $9,000 $9 −$8,991 (-100%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $15 $8 −$7 (-45%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 MOUZ 55¢ 0¢ $4,300 $0 −$4,300 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,920 −$1,920 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $2,724 −$2,724 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $814 +$1,045 +128%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $2,220 +$968 +44%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $4,358 −$4,300 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $914 −$914 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,216 −$1,216 -100%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 14 $1,518 −$1,518 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 14 $1,816 −$1,816 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3,534 +$1,633 +46%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1,016 +$1,068 +105%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2,026 +$1,541 +76%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $21,246 +$13,145 +62%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $3,040 −$3,040 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $8,203 −$8,203 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $8,050 +$2,066 +26%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $4,844 +$2,149 +44%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 13 $510 −$510 -100%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 13 $1,117 −$1,117 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $3,433 −$3,433 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $4,550 −$4,550 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $203 +$261 +128%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $306 −$306 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $2,019 +$919 +46%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,016 +$1,110 +109%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $714 −$714 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $204 +$402 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $103 −$103 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $182 −$182 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 12 $612 −$612 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,619 +$1,045 +64%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $4,043 +$2,159 +53%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3,946 +$2,584 +66%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $405 −$405 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $103 −$103 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1,017 −$1,017 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1,418 +$1,036 +73%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1,931 +$2,222 +115%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $305 +$307 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $103 +$83 +81%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,318 +$1,065 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 11 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $104 −$104 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $306 +$609 +199%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $815 +$1,253 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 10 $343 +$237 +69%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $713 −$713 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $2,861 −$2,861 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $2,840 +$2,694 +95%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $3,345 +$2,973 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 99% +$4,853
crypto 1% +$109
other 0% +$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $7,115 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $10,165 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 49¢ $1,015 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 50¢ $1,015 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 50¢ $3,045 2h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $1,859 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 50¢ $508 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 51¢ $3,044 2h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 50¢ $1,015 4h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 37¢ $102 4h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 43¢ $814 4h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 7h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 58¢ $101 9h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 69¢ $2,220 10h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 56¢ $101 14h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 80¢ $4,024 14h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 56¢ $1,013 14h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 56¢ $1,013 14h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 51¢ $507 15h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 56¢ $811 15h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 71¢ $2,623 15h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $814 16h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 55¢ $1,318 16h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $1,920 20h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $1,016 20h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 60¢ $101 21h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $914 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 68¢ $3,433 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 54¢ $1,216 22h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $3,568 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -7.4% -16.2% 50% 50% -5.9%
≤30d 187 -11.3% -19.8% 50% 50% -13.3%
≤90d 659 -5.3% -14.3% 57% 56% -8.8%
all 1011 -5.9% -14.9% 60% 54% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover13.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.9% 54% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -23.0% 47% -17.4%
15% -30.5% 37% -25.4%
20% -37.3% 25% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28,026.55 · official $28,038.48 (match) · 3245 history records