Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:32:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F4 0xf4ee…e1ac weather 453 markets active 1h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$40 (+0%) realized −$6 · open +$46
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate67%298W / 144L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$389now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$738
14 days−$659
30 days−$493
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 36% +$125
world 23% −$250
other 17% −$47
sports 10% −$140
finance 6% +$806
politics 4% −$160
crypto 3% −$265
economics 1% +$64
tech 1% −$170
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -23.0% -30.3% 59% 36% -31.3%
≤30d 76 -0.3% -9.8% 74% 37% -13.0%
≤90d 268 +16.2% +5.1% 73% 44% -6.9%
all 442 +7.3% -2.9% 67% 43% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.9% 43% -9.5%
10% -12.2% 33% -18.1%
15% -20.7% 21% -26.0%
20% -28.4% 17% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$42 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$389
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$46
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses298 / 144
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions9
Markets (closed)442 / 453
History coverage232d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 442 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 18? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $94 $100 +$5 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 18? No 45¢ 100¢ $45 $100 +$55 (+122%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 19? Yes 80¢ 97¢ $53 $64 +$11 (+21%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 19? No 91¢ 99¢ $38 $41 +$3 (+9%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $46 $36 −$10 (-22%)
Will Hyperliquid dip to $52 in June? No 84¢ 94¢ $28 $31 +$3 (+12%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $11 $8 −$3 (-25%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? Yes $21 $6 −$16 (-74%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 19? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $38 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $64 +$6 +9%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $20 +$5 +26%
Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in June? Jun 16 $110 +$67 +61%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $1,484 −$816 -55%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Hyperliquid reach $70 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $80 +$20 +25%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $463 +$92 +20%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $203 +$3 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $59 +$10 +18%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $82 +$1 +2%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $50 +$5 +10%
Granit Xhaka: 1+ goals Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $25 +$5 +21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $405 −$6 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $168 −$88 -52%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $58 +$8 +14%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $25 +$10 +42%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals Jun 11 $14 +$24 +170%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $25 +$5 +21%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $113 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $93 +$6 +6%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 11 $25 +$21 +82%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 11? Jun 10 $64 −$64 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $40 +$78 +196%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 9? Jun 09 $65 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $96 +$4 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $284 +$16 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 4? Jun 05 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 4? Jun 04 $39 +$61 +156%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 4? Jun 04 $28 +$22 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 3? Jun 03 $196 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 3? Jun 03 $54 +$3 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 3? Jun 03 $707 −$533 -75%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 3? Jun 03 $284 −$132 -46%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $198 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 2? Jun 02 $50 −$21 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 2? Jun 02 $145 +$8 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 2? Jun 02 $52 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 2? Jun 02 $15 +$1 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $498 +$2 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,600 (HIGH) in December? Jun 01 $12 +$4 +30%
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $50 −$50 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 1? Jun 01 $60 +$8 +13%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $41 +$9 +22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $859 +$86 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 19? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 19? BUY No 91¢ $31 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 19? BUY No 92¢ $6 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 19? BUY No 74¢ $1 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 19? BUY Yes 82¢ $30 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 19? BUY Yes 78¢ $23 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 18? BUY Yes 94¢ $94 6h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 18? BUY No 45¢ $45 6h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 18? SELL No 59¢ $38 6h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 56¢ $17 7h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 56¢ $12 7h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 56¢ $9 7h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 31h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 58¢ $20 31h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 17? SELL Yes $0 41h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 17? BUY Yes 91¢ $64 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 17? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $20 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $9 2d
Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in June? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $25 2d
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $14 3d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $52 in June? BUY No 84¢ $28 3d
Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in June? BUY Yes 52¢ $16 3d
Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in June? BUY Yes 55¢ $43 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 26¢ $52 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 14? SELL Yes 85¢ $77 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $6 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $197 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $389.06 · official $389.06 (match) · 2188 history records