Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:49:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
F4 0xf4f0…8646 sports 629 markets active 2h ago coverage 533d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,734 (-13%) realized −$1,647 · open −$87
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate54%319W / 267L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$276now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days−$22
14 days+$6
30 days+$164
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 20% −$805
sports 16% −$348
politics 15% +$322
other 14% +$12
tech 14% −$454
world 12% +$110
economics 6% −$759
finance 2% +$174
culture 1% +$20
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -18.4% -26.2% 54% 42% -13.7%
≤30d 64 +1.3% -8.3% 50% 42% +6.3%
≤90d 136 +0.4% -9.2% 59% 43% -0.7%
all 586 -7.7% -16.5% 54% 39% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 39% -20.7%
10% -24.5% 32% -28.2%
15% -31.8% 26% -35.2%
20% -38.5% 22% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$15 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

533d coverage
Net worth$276
Realized−$1,647
Unrealized−$87
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses319 / 267
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions41
Markets (closed)586 / 629
History coverage533d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 41 History 586 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 82¢ 90¢ $41 $45 +$4 (+10%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No 58¢ 74¢ $27 $34 +$7 (+27%)
Kash Patel out by December 31? No 52¢ 53¢ $26 $27 +$1 (+3%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 89¢ 94¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+5%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 36¢ 34¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-6%)
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30? No 68¢ 80¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 90¢ 96¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 85¢ 88¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 28¢ 5¢ $57 $10 −$48 (-83%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? Yes 32¢ 24¢ $13 $10 −$3 (-23%)
GMGN FDV above $200M one day after launch Yes 60¢ 48¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-19%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 79¢ 97¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+22%)
Will Turkey sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? No 83¢ 98¢ $7 $9 +$1 (+18%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $13 $9 −$4 (-32%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? No 77¢ 96¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+25%)
US military draft authorized in 2026? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-20%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 71¢ 78¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Will Pablo Picasso be #1 in global fine art auction turnover for 2026? Yes 20¢ 50¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+148%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 38¢ 22¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-41%)
Will Trump say "Antifa" in June? Yes 35¢ 30¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-14%)
Will another artist be #1 in global fine art auction turnover for 2026? Yes 30¢ 49¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+63%)
Will Andy Warhol be #1 in global fine art auction turnover for 2026? Yes 7¢ 34¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+393%)
Will Claude Code Commits be at least 750.0k on June 30? Yes 30¢ 38¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+27%)
Will Trump say "Muscle" in June? Yes 37¢ 14¢ $6 $2 −$3 (-61%)
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes 72¢ 14¢ $12 $2 −$9 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO3) - The International Jun 23 $6 $0 +4%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 23 $6 +$1 +11%
Will Trump designate Brazil's PCC or CV as a terrorists by December 31 Jun 23 $114 +$4 +4%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 23 $16 +$4 +26%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 23 $121 +$8 +7%
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? Jun 23 $34 +$15 +44%
Will Starmer say "Thank" 5+ times during resignation? Jun 23 $8 +$12 +150%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $15 +$5 +35%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $16 −$15 -98%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $13 −$1 -11%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $3 +$2 +47%
Oswin Appollis: 1+ goals Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? Jun 18 $14 +$12 +82%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in June? Jun 17 $26 +$4 +17%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 16 $6 +$1 +25%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? Jun 16 $3 +$4 +117%
Will Fermín López score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Will Mitch Marner score the most goals in a single game during the 202 Jun 15 $59 +$30 +51%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 14 $11 $0 -2%
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +66%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $9 +$11 +133%
Will it rain in Dallas on June 10? Jun 12 $1 $0 +39%
Will it rain in Denver on June 10? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Seth Jarvis score the most goals in a single game during the 2026 Jun 09 $0 $0 -90%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Nikolaj Ehlers lead the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals in goals? Jun 08 $0 $0 -99%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $6 +$24 +400%
Will Logan Stankoven score the most goals in a single game during the Jun 07 $36 −$36 -100%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs mCon esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $14 +$2 +13%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $8 +$52 +669%
Will Jackson Blake score the most goals in a single game during the 20 Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will Mark Stone score the most goals in a single game during the 2026 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Nikolaj Ehlers score the most goals in a single game during the 2 Jun 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ivan Barbashev score the most goals in a single game during the 2 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brett Howden score the most goals in a single game during the 202 Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Pavel Dorofeyev score the most goals in a single game during the Jun 06 $25 −$25 -100%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $1.75–$2.00 in May? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Trump say "UFC" this week? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" 3+ times during Wisconsin events? Jun 06 $8 +$32 +400%
Will Trump say "Death Tax" during Wisconsin events? Jun 05 $12 +$3 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO3) - The International SELL GamerLegion 96¢ $7 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 99¢ $7 2h
Will Trump designate Brazil's PCC or CV as a terrorists by December 31 SELL Yes 97¢ $33 2h
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 99¢ $20 2h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $129 2h
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $48 2h
Will Starmer say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 5+ times during BUY Yes 33¢ $13 25h
Will Starmer say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 5+ times during BUY Yes 33¢ $1 25h
Will Starmer say "Thank" 5+ times during resignation? BUY Yes 40¢ $8 25h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 44h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $1 47h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $20 47h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $8 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 56¢ $8 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 57¢ $3 4d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $8 4d
Oswin Appollis: 1+ goals BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 63¢ $13 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $6 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $6 5d
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 5d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 11¢ $1 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $13 5d
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO3) - The International BUY GamerLegion 92¢ $6 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? BUY No 78¢ $6 6d
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in June? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 6d
Will Turkey sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY No 83¢ $7 6d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 100¢ $7 6d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 89¢ $6 6d
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $276.03 · official $276.28 (match) · 1563 history records