Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:26:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

F4 0xf4f2…771f sports 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 55d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$25 (+7%) realized +$19 · open +$6

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip

Net edge-24%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%5W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$22per market

Trades / day0.4pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit59%portable

Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$13

7 days+$13

14 days+$13

30 days+$49

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-24.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+20.5%	+9.1%	100%	100%	+9.3%
≤30d	4	+33.0%	+20.3%	100%	100%	+30.0%
≤90d	10	-16.1%	-24.0%	50%	50%	-3.8%
all	10	-16.1%	-24.0%	50%	50%	-3.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-24.0%	50%	-3.8%
10%	-31.3%	40%	-13.0%
15%	-38.0%	20%	-21.4%
20%	-44.0%	20%	-29.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 53% · top 2 82% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -16% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$14 vs −$10 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.32 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage

Net worth$97

Realized+$19

Unrealized+$6

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses5 / 5

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions7

Markets (closed)10 / 17

History coverage55d

Avg bet$22

Trades / day0.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 7 History 10 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	No	83¢	82¢	$40	$40	−$0 (-1%)
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	27¢	35¢	$15	$19	+$4 (+30%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	No	63¢	60¢	$13	$12	−$1 (-4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	9¢	11¢	$7	$9	+$2 (+25%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	10¢	10¢	$6	$6	+$0 (+7%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	17¢	18¢	$5	$6	+$1 (+11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	13¢	$5	$4	−$1 (-17%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	Jun 17	$30	+$7	+24%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	Jun 17	$20	+$3	+14%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva	Jun 16	$10	+$2	+23%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	May 30	$52	+$37	+70%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?	May 06	$3	−$3	-98%
Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League final?	May 06	$35	+$20	+56%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-02?	Apr 30	$18	−$18	-99%
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the seco	Apr 29	$35	−$16	-46%
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final?	Apr 23	$14	−$14	-100%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Apr 23	$50	−$1	-2%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY No	83¢	$40	1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	BUY No	87¢	$20	18h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva	BUY Alexander Zverev	81¢	$10	18h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?	BUY No	80¢	$30	18h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	BUY No	63¢	$13	18h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	9¢	$7	6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$6	13d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY Yes	58¢	$52	40d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?	BUY Yes	23¢	$3	41d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-02?	BUY Yes	76¢	$18	47d
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the seco	SELL Yes	30¢	$19	48d
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final?	BUY Yes	56¢	$14	54d
Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League final?	BUY Yes	64¢	$35	54d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	SELL No	88¢	$49	54d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	BUY No	90¢	$50	54d
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the seco	BUY Yes	52¢	$10	54d
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the seco	BUY Yes	54¢	$25	54d
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen	BUY Yes	27¢	$15	54d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$5	54d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	17¢	$5	54d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	16¢	$10	54d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$5	54d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$5	54d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.51 · official $96.52 (match) · 71 history records