Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:40:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

F4 0xf4f3…d1b7 other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$223 (+18%) realized +$238 · open −$15

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip

Net edge-32%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%2W / 2L

Drawdown34%max

Avg bet$246per market

Trades / day0.9pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit40%portable

Net worth$505now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-32.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	-24.9%	-32.0%	50%	50%	+16.5%
≤30d	4	-24.9%	-32.0%	50%	50%	+16.5%
≤90d	4	-24.9%	-32.0%	50%	50%	+16.5%
all	4	-24.9%	-32.0%	50%	50%	+16.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.9 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-32.0%	50%	+16.5%
10%	-38.5%	50%	+5.4%
15%	-44.5%	50%	-4.8%
20%	-49.9%	25%	-14.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 62% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +29% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -25% · $-wt +29% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$148 vs −$50 · ×2.95 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.95 per $1 lost it wins $2.95

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$505

Realized+$238

Unrealized−$15

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses2 / 2

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage5d

Avg bet$246

Trades / day0.9

Drawdown34%

Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	52¢	50¢	$520	$505	−$15 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card)	Jun 21	$53	−$50	-94%
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight,	Jun 21	$53	−$50	-94%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$262	+$111	+42%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$316	+$184	+58%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	52¢	$548	1h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card)	BUY Kyoji Horiguchi	39¢	$53	4d
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight,	BUY Ion Cutelaba	27¢	$53	4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	67¢	$262	4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	60¢	$316	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $505.00 · official $505.00 (match) · 7 history records