Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:41:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F4
0xf4f8…5bf1
sports · 937 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$1,968 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,003 · open +$991
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10,282
Realized+$1,003
Unrealized+$991
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses342 / 513
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$679
Open positions104
Markets (closed)855 / 937
History coverage13d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day190.4
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 104 History 855 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$521
7 days−$685
14 days+$1,003
30 days+$1,003
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? No 37¢ 80¢ $500 $1,079 +$579 (+116%)
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? No 47¢ 78¢ $459 $773 +$314 (+68%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? No 68¢ 84¢ $543 $666 +$124 (+23%)
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Yes 86¢ 87¢ $615 $623 +$7 (+1%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score in First Half No 74¢ 81¢ $561 $615 +$54 (+10%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Paper Rex 71¢ 100¢ $337 $474 +$137 (+41%)
Will SpaceX have 14+ launches in June 2026? Yes 38¢ 53¢ $302 $422 +$119 (+39%)
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? No 82¢ 90¢ $331 $360 +$30 (+9%)
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Team Heretics 40¢ 36¢ $358 $322 −$36 (-10%)
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 1 Winner Misa Esports 45¢ 100¢ $138 $309 +$171 (+124%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? No 91¢ 89¢ $279 $273 −$6 (-2%)
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election? Yes 70¢ 83¢ $229 $271 +$42 (+18%)
Will Ghana reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 86¢ $254 $256 +$2 (+1%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? No 94¢ 94¢ $248 $247 −$1 (-1%)
Will Blake Miguez be the Republican nominee for LA-05? No 57¢ 94¢ $117 $193 +$76 (+65%)
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? Yes 71¢ 84¢ $146 $173 +$27 (+18%)
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Yes 29¢ 44¢ $114 $172 +$58 (+51%)
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top global Netflix show this week? No 84¢ 97¢ $144 $166 +$22 (+15%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 36¢ 36¢ $163 $161 −$2 (-1%)
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? No 72¢ 64¢ $175 $156 −$18 (-10%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 43¢ 19¢ $311 $138 −$174 (-56%)
Will Darryn Peterson be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Yes 54¢ 57¢ $130 $137 +$8 (+6%)
Will Elena Rybakina be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $118 $115 −$3 (-2%)
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos NC Dinos 50¢ 50¢ $111 $109 −$2 (-2%)
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Ben Shelton 39¢ 100¢ $41 $106 +$65 (+159%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF San Gregorio: Andreea Prisacariu vs Camilla Gennaro Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $7 +$10 +134%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $4 +$6 +130%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $224 +$9 +4%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $201 +$32 +16%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $88 −$86 -98%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $109 +$42 +39%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $11 −$11 -97%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $17 −$16 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $57 −$57 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $376 −$376 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $230 +$166 +72%
Overwatch: O2 Blast vs ZETA DIVISION (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group S Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $371 +$40 +11%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
ITF Brasilia: Enzo Kohlmann de Freitas vs Pedro Rodrigues Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
ITF Los Angeles: Alexis Nguyen vs Lily Taylor Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
ITF Guimaraes: Matilde Jorge vs Anastasia Kulikova Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Jakub Vrba vs Adam Duda Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 2 Win Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Sean Cuenin vs Niccolo Baroni Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Lyon: Daniel Rincon vs Dali Blanch Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Anton Arzhankin vs Stefano D'agostino Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters G Jun 12 $43 −$43 -100%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 73% −$680
other 18% +$1,831
politics 4% +$1,841
culture 3% −$732
tech 1% +$127
world 1% −$342
weather 0% −$50
crypto 0% +$1
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elena Rybakina be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 14m
Will Elena Rybakina be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 19m
Will Elena Rybakina be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 25m
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 36¢ $12 28m
Ilkley: Harmony Tan vs Lanlana Tararudee BUY Lanlana Tararudee 10¢ $2 28m
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 36¢ $88 29m
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Kimmer Coppejans BUY Kimmer Coppejans 9¢ $8 33m
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 41¢ $2 34m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 27¢ $2 34m
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 41¢ $9 34m
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 43¢ $103 35m
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 41¢ $97 35m
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 41¢ $52 35m
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Kimmer Coppejans BUY Daniel Galan 56¢ $13 39m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 1¢ $1 40m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 1¢ $1 41m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 29¢ $19 43m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 9¢ $1 47m
Counter-Strike: FUT Turkuaz vs Fire Flux Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Turkuaz 3¢ $10 49m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $1 57m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $2 57m
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 1 Winner BUY Misa Esports 38¢ $5 1h
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 1 Winner BUY Misa Esports 40¢ $96 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 71¢ $337 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 34¢ $121 1h
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 1 Winner BUY Misa Esports 64¢ $39 1h
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in June? BUY No 19¢ $15 1h
Will Elena Rybakina be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 1h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Ben Shelton 51¢ $8 1h
ITF San Gregorio: Andreea Prisacariu vs Camilla Gennaro BUY Camilla Gennaro 52¢ $12 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 551 -17.3% -25.2% 38% 35% -12.4%
≤30d 855 -11.3% -19.8% 40% 36% -8.7%
≤90d 855 -11.3% -19.8% 40% 36% -8.7%
all 855 -11.3% -19.8% 40% 36% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover190.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.8% 36% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -27.5% 31% -17.5%
15% -34.5% 26% -25.4%
20% -40.9% 21% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,281.97 · official $10,282.29 (match) · 3500 history records