Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:57:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F4 0xf4f9…6d50 sports 123 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$243 (+8%) realized +$251 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate25%22W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$267
7 days+$351
14 days+$370
30 days+$315
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 40% +$519
crypto 37% −$199
other 23% −$5
politics 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)+17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +164.1% +139.0% 32% 29% +41.9%
≤30d 89 +29.7% +17.3% 25% 24% +7.7%
≤90d 89 +29.7% +17.3% 25% 24% +7.7%
all 89 +29.7% +17.3% 25% 24% +7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.3% 24% +7.7%
10% +6.1% 22% -2.6%
15% -4.2% 22% -12.0%
20% -13.6% 21% -20.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -52% → late +109% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$15 · ×4.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$251
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses22 / 67
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)89 / 123
History coverage16d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 72 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $0 +$5 +1884%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $5 +$41 +790%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 +$51 +495%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Jun 17 $31 +$64 +208%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $15 +$24 +154%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Will Norw Jun 17 $10 +$73 +707%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $109 −$58 -53%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Sweden win on 2026- Jun 15 $12 +$215 +1744%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $251 +$22 +9%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -97%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $30 −$29 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 South Africa? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 3 South Africa? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
South Africa leading at halftime? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 11 $31 +$43 +138%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $9 −$9 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $14 −$14 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 South Africa? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 11 $31 +$26 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 11 $37 −$36 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 10 $34 +$52 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 10 $93 −$56 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 10 $18 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 10 $51 −$15 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 10 $47 +$37 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 10 $62 −$60 -96%
Besiktas vs. Bahcesehir Koleji Jun 10 $50 −$49 -98%
Will England vs. Costa Rica end in a draw? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
England vs. Costa Rica: England O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -94%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $32 −$6 -18%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $86 +$73 +85%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $53 −$8 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 29¢ $27 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? SELL Yes 52¢ $30 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? SELL Yes 39¢ $30 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 30¢ $18 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06- BUY 8¢ $6 5h
Spread: England (-2.5) AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Uzbe BUY 10¢ $7 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $0 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 2¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 5h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 5h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 5h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia BUY 7¢ $17 5h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 9¢ $12 5h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 7¢ $10 5h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia BUY 4¢ $10 5h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners AND England vs. Croati BUY 10¢ $8 5h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) BUY 8¢ $7 5h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Spr BUY 18¢ $16 36h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Argentina vs. Algeria BUY 1¢ $3 36h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 4¢ $5 36h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 2¢ $5 36h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Will Norw BUY 12¢ $10 36h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Argentina win on 2026- BUY 12¢ $7 36h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Argentina win on 2026- BUY 2¢ $4 36h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Over 11¢ $8 36h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 AND Spread: A BUY 1¢ $10 36h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 AND Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Will Norw BUY 6¢ $12 36h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 7¢ $10 36h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 AND Spread BUY 1¢ $7 36h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 39¢ $15 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.14 · official $72.69 · 223 history records