Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:48:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf4fb…8cad other 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$153 (-6%) realized −$183 · open +$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%14W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$205now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$53
sports 10% −$41
world 2% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +27.1% +15.0% 48% 48% -16.7%
≤30d 29 +27.1% +15.0% 48% 48% -16.7%
≤90d 29 +27.1% +15.0% 48% 48% -16.7%
all 29 +27.1% +15.0% 48% 48% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.0% 48% -16.7%
10% +4.0% 41% -24.7%
15% -6.0% 41% -31.9%
20% -15.2% 31% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late +29% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$70 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$205
Realized−$183
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses14 / 15
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)29 / 34
History coverage6d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 59¢ 80¢ $100 $135 +$35 (+35%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Uzbekistan 55¢ 55¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: England (-1.5) Croatia 68¢ 54¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-21%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$9 +17%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$23 +114%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +44%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 +$33 +650%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$4 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$46 +46%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $19 −$19 -99%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$35 +344%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$116 +226%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$25 +250%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $202 +$113 +56%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$28 +276%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $503 −$500 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $203 +$218 +107%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $404 +$174 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 55¢ $20 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 68¢ $20 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $10 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 5h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $50 15h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 19h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 19h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $20 28h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 59¢ $19 28h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 28h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 36h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 36h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 36h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $10 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 58¢ $30 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 55¢ $10 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $302 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $204.82 · official $203.13 (match) · 51 history records