Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:37:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F4 0xf4fe…f6e7 weather 1613 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 15d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (124 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$978 (-4%) realized −$1,131 · open +$153
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate93%1422W / 103L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day123.7pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$3,818now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 84% +$52
other 7% +$141
crypto 5% +$15
culture 2% +$3
finance 2% +$2
politics 0% +$128
economics 0% +$1
world 0% +$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (124 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 848 -9.9% -18.5% 89% 1% -31.5%
≤30d 1525 -5.0% -14.1% 93% 1% -22.3%
≤90d 1525 -5.0% -14.1% 93% 1% -22.3%
all 1525 -5.0% -14.1% 93% 1% -22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover123.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.1% 1% -22.3%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 0% -29.7%
15% -29.8% 0% -36.5%
20% -36.7% 0% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$38 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$3,818
Realized−$1,131
Unrealized+$153
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses1422 / 103
Open positions206
Markets (closed)1525 / 1613
History coverage16d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day123.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 206 History 1525 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 79¢ 93¢ $567 $666 +$99 (+18%)
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21? No 96¢ 99¢ $281 $291 +$10 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 18? No 96¢ 100¢ $215 $223 +$8 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 18? No 94¢ 100¢ $146 $155 +$9 (+6%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in June? No 97¢ 100¢ $90 $93 +$3 (+3%)
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21? No 97¢ 100¢ $79 $81 +$2 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C or higher on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $58 $59 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $51 $52 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $48 $49 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+0%)
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21? No 80¢ 81¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 19? No 99¢ 99¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 86¢ 90¢ $36 $38 +$2 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+0%)
Trump declares election interference national emergency? No 78¢ 90¢ $27 $31 +$4 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? No 96¢ 100¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+0%)
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21? No 94¢ 95¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 99 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on May 1? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will The Midnight Walk win VR Game of the Year at the 2025 Steam Award Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Anca Alexandrescu finish second in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by- Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Jason Miyares win the 2025 Virginia Attorney General election? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? Jun 18 $2,202 −$2,280 -104%
Will "GOAT" Third Weekend Box Office be greater than 12m? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump talk to Elon Musk in November? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on May 5? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on April 2? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 17 to April Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Kevin Wilson be the Republican Nominee for MS-02? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on May 31? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Trump make no endorsement for NYC Mayor? Jun 18 $140 −$140 -100%
Will Japan’s January 2026 unemployment rate be ≥2.7%? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on May 30? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 23? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Daniel Crenshaw be the Republican Nominee for TX-02? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2026 me Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs. SV 07 Elversberg end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 January 26-1? Jun 18 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 15? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 12.5m Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Michael Jackson be named in newly released Epstein files? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Everett Jackson be the Republican Nominee for TX-30? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on May 7? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 202 Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on May 7? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 12°C or below on March 20? Jun 18 $60 −$60 -100%
US strikes Iran by Feb 28 Odds >30% by Friday? Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on May Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 14? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Squid Game be the #1 searched TV show on Google this year? Jun 18 $99 −$99 -100%
Will "Michael" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31? Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on March 27? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 2AM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on April 2? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 1? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 31? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Kendrick Lamar be the #2 searched person on Google this year? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $19 31m
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $5 57m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $20 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 97¢ $20 4h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $8 6h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $9 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $8 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $8 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $9 6h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 61°F or below on June BUY No 100¢ $8 6h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C or below on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $18 6h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June BUY No 99¢ $7 6h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 100¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on June BUY No 99¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 60-61°F on June BUY No 100¢ $6 6h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $9 6h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $14 6h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $6 8h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $8 8h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $3 8h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $5 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,818.24 · official $3,818.25 (match) · 3500 history records