Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:42:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F4 0xf4ff…4ce9 sports 19 markets active 6d ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$116 (-3%) realized −$116 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%9W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$213per market
Trades / day35.0pace
Fees−$65est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$142
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +4.1% -5.8% 47% 47% -12.7%
≤30d 19 +4.1% -5.8% 47% 47% -12.7%
≤90d 19 +4.1% -5.8% 47% 47% -12.7%
all 19 +4.1% -5.8% 47% 47% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.8% 47% -12.7%
10% ← realistic here -14.8% 47% -21.1%
15% -23.1% 37% -28.7%
20% -30.6% 32% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late +37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$210 vs −$203 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$116
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses9 / 10
Est. fees paid−$65
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage1d
Avg bet$213
Trades / day35.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $82 +$418 +510%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $984 +$1,077 +109%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $911 −$896 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $80 +$41 +51%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 12 $100 +$30 +29%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $437 +$151 +35%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $58 +$22 +39%
Tucuman: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 12 $85 −$85 -99%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 12 $26 −$25 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $88 −$88 -100%
Spread: Hurricanes (-2.5) Jun 12 $11 −$1 -5%
Rainbow Six Siege: Five Fears vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Ameri Jun 11 $22 +$19 +86%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $203 +$126 +62%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $25 −$24 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $3 +$2 +62%
Lyon: Dali Blanch vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 11 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $642 −$629 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $222 −$222 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $8 −$8 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 44¢ $454 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 47¢ $984 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 44¢ $458 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 20¢ $10 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 47¢ $20 5d
Tucuman: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez BUY Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida 79¢ $85 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 65¢ $358 5d
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) BUY Golden Knights 66¢ $67 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 72¢ $58 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 40¢ $12 5d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 50¢ $26 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 54¢ $49 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 54¢ $6 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 54¢ $3 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 54¢ $3 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 54¢ $22 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 54¢ $6 5d
Spread: Hurricanes (-2.5) SELL Hurricanes 15¢ $10 5d
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) BUY Hurricanes 26¢ $34 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 58¢ $70 5d
Spread: Hurricanes (-2.5) BUY Hurricanes 15¢ $11 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 43¢ $6 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 43¢ $1 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 43¢ $0 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 42¢ $38 5d
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY WLGaming Esports 16¢ $82 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 48¢ $25 6d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 61¢ $3 6d
Lyon: Dali Blanch vs David Jorda Sanchis BUY Dali Blanch 57¢ $51 6d
Rainbow Six Siege: Five Fears vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Ameri BUY Shopify Rebellion 53¢ $22 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 45 history records