Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:27:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F4 0xf4ff…b556 sports 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$583 (+23%) realized +$811 · open −$228
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%6W / 9L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$152per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$434now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$504
other 4% −$101
crypto 3% −$76
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +9.2% -1.2% 40% 40% +16.9%
≤30d 15 +9.2% -1.2% 40% 40% +16.9%
≤90d 15 +9.2% -1.2% 40% 40% +16.9%
all 15 +9.2% -1.2% 40% 40% +16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.2% 40% +16.9%
10% -10.6% 40% +5.7%
15% -19.3% 40% -4.5%
20% -27.2% 40% -13.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$211 vs −$79 · ×2.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.78 per $1 lost it wins $1.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$434
Realized+$811
Unrealized−$228
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses6 / 9
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions2
Markets (closed)15 / 17
History coverage3d
Avg bet$152
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Over 26¢ 26¢ $442 $434 −$8 (-2%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Over 48¢ 0¢ $220 $0 −$220 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $305 −$184 -60%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $153 +$242 +158%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $26 +$39 +146%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $271 +$215 +79%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $204 +$421 +206%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $203 −$91 -45%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $284 +$299 +105%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$51 +250%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $77 −$76 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $206 −$203 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $452 3m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $122 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 19¢ $121 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $305 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $31 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $153 21h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $99 24h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $26 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $172 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $204 24h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $20 46h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 28¢ $112 46h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $203 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 54¢ $81 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 46¢ $203 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 2d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 24¢ $5 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $77 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 47¢ $203 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 47¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $433.73 · official $433.73 (match) · 29 history records