Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:16:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F5 0xf505…c2fe other 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$22 (+5%) realized +$24 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate38%12W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$52
7 days+$43
14 days+$18
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$13
sports 15% −$20
crypto 12% +$21
weather 6% +$1
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +88.3% +70.3% 42% 42% +36.5%
≤30d 32 +6.0% -4.1% 38% 25% -4.4%
≤90d 32 +6.0% -4.1% 38% 25% -4.4%
all 32 +6.0% -4.1% 38% 25% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.1% 25% -4.4%
10% -13.2% 16% -13.6%
15% -21.6% 16% -21.9%
20% -29.3% 12% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late +54% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$3 · ×2.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized+$24
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses12 / 20
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)32 / 37
History coverage15d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 84¢ 92¢ $42 $46 +$4 (+10%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? Down 68¢ 57¢ $34 $29 −$5 (-15%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 18¢ 15¢ $9 $7 −$1 (-17%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 25¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+12%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 39¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain? Jun 27 $3 +$22 +712%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $16 +$8 +52%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 3 Spain? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $2 −$1 -21%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $6 +$39 +685%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $13 −$13 -95%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 $0 -11%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $22 +$4 +20%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 −$1 -27%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3 +$1 +50%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $49 +$2 +3%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $44 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $20 +$3 +13%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $32 +$1 +5%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $34 +$5 +14%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $3 −$1 -23%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $21 $0 -2%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +197%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 15 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $18 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27? BUY Down 68¢ $35 1h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 6h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 3 Spain? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 21h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 29h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 26¢ $2 34h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 32¢ $2 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 25¢ $13 41h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 25? BUY Down 12¢ $6 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 15¢ $1 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 16¢ $1 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $22 2d
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 3d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $14 4d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 16¢ $2 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 21¢ $3 5d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 66¢ $3 6d
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $10 7d
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 7d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? SELL No 94¢ $43 8d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? BUY No 94¢ $44 8d
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY No 97¢ $49 9d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 88¢ $20 9d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 9d
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 9d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? BUY No 96¢ $32 9d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 9d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 88¢ $34 10d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.98 · official $89.01 (match) · 56 history records