Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:18:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F5 0xf509…86dc sports 56 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$117 (+5%) realized +$137 · open −$20
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%24W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$165
7 days+$106
14 days+$128
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$280
other 36% +$249
crypto 2% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -6.1% -15.0% 46% 46% -4.9%
≤30d 54 +1.0% -8.6% 44% 44% -8.6%
≤90d 54 +1.0% -8.6% 44% 44% -8.6%
all 54 +1.0% -8.6% 44% 44% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 44% -8.6%
10% -17.4% 44% -17.4%
15% -25.3% 41% -25.4%
20% -32.7% 28% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$34 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$137
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses24 / 30
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 56
History coverage22d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Manel Kape 61¢ 37¢ $50 $30 −$20 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Jun 21 $25 +$8 +30%
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main Jun 21 $25 +$9 +38%
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $136 −$50 -37%
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $151 +$72 +48%
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims Jun 20 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$35 +70%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $51 −$32 -64%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $51 +$60 +118%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $122 +$85 +70%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $15 −$1 -7%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $32 +$18 +57%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $25 −$25 -99%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $25 +$18 +73%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $25 +$15 +59%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$51 +101%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $50 −$36 -71%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -99%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 +$23 +46%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $25 +$26 +101%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $25 +$11 +44%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $26 +$10 +40%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 16 $87 +$49 +57%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$42 +41%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $101 +$42 +41%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$88 -87%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $8 +$2 +31%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $63 +$39 +62%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $19 −$10 -52%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $24 −$10 -40%
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $35 +$195 +550%
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $41 +$64 +156%
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $80 −$79 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $49 −$27 -55%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $50 −$49 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $111 −$110 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $56 +$54 +97%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $15 +$93 +604%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, SELL Navajo Stirling 100¢ $33 19m
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main SELL Vinicius Oliveira 100¢ $35 1h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Kevin Borjas 100¢ $78 2h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kevin Borjas 90¢ $70 2h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Andre Lima 10¢ $8 2h
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre BUY Michael Aswell 56¢ $25 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $223 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 6h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Andre Lima 84¢ $65 6h
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, BUY Navajo Stirling 76¢ $25 6h
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main BUY Vinicius Oliveira 72¢ $25 6h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Manel Kape 61¢ $51 6h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 61¢ $25 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $86 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 9h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 24¢ $18 24h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 64¢ $51 24h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $111 25h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $25 25h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $51 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $207 26h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 26h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? SELL Yes 15¢ $9 26h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 27h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $122 28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 98¢ $51 29h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $25 29h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $44 30h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $25 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.33 · official $30.33 (match) · 99 history records