Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:13:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf509…2e82 weather 40 markets active 3h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$1 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate88%23W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$299now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% $0
crypto 16% $0
weather 2% −$1
world 2% $0
sports 0% −$1
politics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -39.7% -45.5% 40% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 26 -7.3% -16.1% 88% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 26 -7.3% -16.1% 88% 0% -9.6%
all 26 -7.3% -16.1% 88% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 0% -9.6%
10% -24.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -31.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -38.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$299
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses23 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions14
Markets (closed)26 / 40
History coverage17d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $250 $250 −$0 (-0%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 82¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-3%)
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? No 100¢ 99¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? No 98¢ 97¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will BRION win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 18? No 100¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? No 86¢ 86¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? Jun 16 $516 +$1 +0%
Will Trump say "America" during UFC 250? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? Jun 15 $255 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on June 8? Jun 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Migrant Crime" this week? Jun 08 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on June 6? Jun 08 $3 $0 +0%
Other Jun 07 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 6? Jun 07 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 6? Jun 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 3? Jun 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 3? Jun 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 3? Jun 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 3? Jun 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 3? Jun 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 3? Jun 03 $2 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 2? Jun 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 1? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in May 2026? Jun 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? Jun 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? Jun 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $170 in May? Jun 01 $109 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Turtle" in May? Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY No 86¢ $1 2h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $3 2h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $253 17h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $1 17h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $254 17h
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $2 2d
Will BRION win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? BUY No 100¢ $2 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 2d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 98¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $3 2d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $11 2d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $265 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $1 2d
Will Trump say "America" during UFC 250? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 2d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $255 2d
Will Trump say "Migrant Crime" this week? BUY No 98¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $2 9d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $255 9d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $20 10d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $232 10d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $13 11d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 11d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $3 12d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 6? BUY No 99¢ $1 12d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $3 12d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $2 12d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $251 15d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $2 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $299.33 · official $299.33 (match) · 90 history records