Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:36:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F5 0xf50b…dd56 crypto 300 markets active 1h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$246 (-4%) realized −$246 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate42%127W / 172L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$273
7 days−$299
14 days−$505
30 days−$457
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$720
other 5% −$14
sports 1% +$35
world 0% −$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-27.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -35.6% -41.8% 31% 25% -27.6%
≤30d 126 -15.5% -23.5% 48% 40% -20.7%
≤90d 299 -19.4% -27.1% 42% 38% -21.0%
all 299 -19.4% -27.1% 42% 38% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.1% 38% -21.0%
10% -34.1% 32% -28.6%
15% -40.5% 28% -35.5%
20% -46.3% 25% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$11 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$246
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses127 / 172
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)299 / 300
History coverage53d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 299 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) Türkiye 9¢ 10¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 138 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 19 $59 −$55 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 19 $56 −$7 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 19 $94 −$92 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 19 $125 −$32 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 19 $206 −$67 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 19 $239 −$34 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 19 $319 +$43 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 19 $30 −$29 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 19 $31 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $20 +$11 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $16 +$3 +21%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $30 −$4 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +9%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $12 +$8 +68%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $17 −$5 -30%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $16 +$17 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -87%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $24 −$7 -30%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -95%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $10 +$8 +81%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $46 −$21 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $16 +$11 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$9 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -89%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $14 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 10 $14 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 10 $6 +$8 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 10 $16 −$14 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 10 $15 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $26 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 10 $18 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 10 $12 +$5 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $12 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 10 $11 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $11 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 10 $7 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $102 −$94 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 10 $95 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 09 $112 −$58 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 09 $64 +$22 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $59 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $7 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $67 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $49 59m
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) BUY Türkiye 9¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $94 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $93 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $125 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $127 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $206 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $205 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $239 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $239 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $124 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $124 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $195 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $30 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $30 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $20 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $11 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $31 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $20 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $16 8h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $17 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 25h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.53 · official $2.53 (match) · 701 history records