Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:59:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F5 0xf50c…0e55 world 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$24 (+0%) realized +$23 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate34%15W / 29L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$188per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$1
world 31% +$45
sports 26% −$3
economics 2% $0
finance 2% −$3
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)+30.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.5% -10.0% 55% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 24 -3.6% -12.7% 42% 4% -9.4%
≤90d 40 +48.3% +34.1% 38% 10% -8.9%
all 44 +43.9% +30.2% 34% 9% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +30.2% 9% -9.1%
10% +17.7% 7% -17.8%
15% +6.3% 5% -25.7%
20% -4.1% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +44% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +92% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.18 per $1 lost it wins $2.18
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses15 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage104d
Avg bet$188
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $113 $114 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $225 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $84 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 22 $120 +$1 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $64 +$2 +3%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $131 −$1 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $225 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 19 $124 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $9 −$1 -7%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $119 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $121 −$3 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $20 −$4 -19%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $131 +$6 +5%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $191 −$2 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $18 +$5 +30%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $77 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $119 −$2 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $50 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $117 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $306 −$1 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $5 $0 +7%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 02 $117 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $228 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $135 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $17 −$4 -25%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $128 −$3 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $88 −$4 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 23 $112 +$42 +38%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 21 $102 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 19 $101 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 19 $63 +$9 +14%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 18 $102 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $1 $0 -3%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 15 $68 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $704 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $546 −$1 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $396 +$1 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $209 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $601 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $602 −$1 -0%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 18 $731 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 17 $17 $0 +0%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Mar 16 $666 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 13 $337 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $81 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $32 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $12 11h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $38 13h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $54 13h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $104 14h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $121 15h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $35 22h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $16 22h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $71 22h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $13 31h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $13 33h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 51¢ $28 39h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 51¢ $56 39h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $84 42h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $51 47h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $7 47h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $63 47h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $28 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $21 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $71 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $66 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $64 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $130 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $131 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $27 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $86 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $114 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $29 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $62 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.15 · official $114.03 (match) · 222 history records