Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:32:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F5 0xf50f…ccc1 weather 72 markets active 3d ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$806 (-3%) realized −$806 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate83%60W / 12L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$410per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2,346
14 days−$2,053
30 days−$1,883
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
culture 42% +$549
politics 22% −$23
other 21% −$1,571
weather 8% +$3
tech 6% +$95
sports 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -19.3% -26.9% 62% 38% -54.4%
≤30d 28 -2.7% -11.9% 79% 32% -20.2%
≤90d 72 +1.2% -8.4% 83% 32% -12.0%
all 72 +1.2% -8.4% 83% 32% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 32% -12.0%
10% -17.2% 10% -20.4%
15% -25.2% 6% -28.1%
20% -32.5% 1% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$729) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$289 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$806
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses60 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)72 / 72
History coverage48d
Avg bet$410
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 72 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,124 −$2,119 -100%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 15 $900 +$153 +17%
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m? Jun 15 $354 +$74 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $102 +$46 +45%
Curaçao to score first vs. Germany? Jun 14 $100 +$6 +6%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? Jun 14 $919 −$479 -52%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $200 +$12 +6%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 Jun 08 $460 +$69 +15%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? Jun 08 $1,110 +$224 +20%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 04 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Kim Sang-wook win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? Jun 04 $201 +$23 +11%
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima Jun 03 $201 +$22 +11%
Will Ryan Busse be the Democratic nominee for MT-01? Jun 03 $703 −$230 -33%
Will Josh Turek be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Iowa? Jun 03 $200 +$4 +2%
Will Adam Hamawy be the Democratic Nominee for NJ-12? Jun 03 $201 +$17 +9%
Will Reilly Neill be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Montana? Jun 03 $301 −$298 -99%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m? Jun 01 $1,396 +$131 +9%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 7m? Jun 01 $400 +$141 +35%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 2 May 31 $301 −$43 -14%
Will Robert Abela be the next Prime Minister of Malta following the 20 May 31 $451 +$31 +7%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 61m? May 29 $241 +$12 +5%
Will Colin Allred be the Democratic nominee for TX-33? May 27 $1,705 +$140 +8%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 25 $956 +$87 +9%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 23 $1,003 +$53 +5%
Will David Brock Smith be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon? May 23 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Christine Drazan win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary May 20 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $102 +$61 +60%
Will "Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 25m? May 18 $201 +$23 +12%
Will "In the Grey" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 3.5m? May 18 $1,001 +$21 +2%
Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 15m? May 18 $601 +$41 +7%
Will Moldova be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $523 +$77 +15%
Will Albania be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $903 +$71 +8%
Will Armenia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $406 +$159 +39%
Will Azerbaijan advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $1,002 +$43 +4%
Will Estonia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 13 $404 +$105 +26%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and May 12 $750 −$85 -11%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 38m? May 11 $520 +$95 +18%
Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 15m May 11 $300 +$25 +8%
Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than May 11 $500 +$13 +3%
Will David Farley win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Au May 09 $1,106 +$167 +15%
Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election? May 08 $1,038 +$61 +6%
Will the Labour Party win control of the most London borough councils? May 08 $759 +$81 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 8? May 08 $90 −$70 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 8? May 08 $80 +$9 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 8? May 08 $79 +$8 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 7? May 07 $30 −$14 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 7? May 07 $54 +$10 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 7? May 07 $48 +$6 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 7? May 07 $51 −$4 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $2,124 3d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 SELL Yes 99¢ $1,053 3d
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m? SELL Yes 97¢ $428 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $148 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 68¢ $102 3d
Curaçao to score first vs. Germany? BUY No 94¢ $100 3d
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 3d
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m? BUY Yes 77¢ $51 3d
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 3d
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 15m? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 3d
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? SELL Yes 40¢ $440 3d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 BUY Yes 88¢ $200 4d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 BUY Yes 85¢ $50 4d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 BUY Yes 82¢ $100 4d
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? BUY Yes 73¢ $61 4d
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? BUY Yes 75¢ $203 4d
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $1 4d
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? BUY Yes 90¢ $201 4d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 BUY Yes 84¢ $100 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 100¢ $213 4d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 BUY Yes 87¢ $100 4d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 BUY Yes 87¢ $100 4d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 BUY Yes 84¢ $100 4d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 BUY Yes 85¢ $100 4d
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? BUY Yes 88¢ $50 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 94¢ $200 4d
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? BUY Yes 67¢ $51 5d
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? BUY Yes 72¢ $51 5d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 BUY Yes 68¢ $50 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 318 history records