Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:50:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F5 0xf50f…c2dd crypto 140 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$87 (+3%) realized +$87 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%69W / 69L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day46.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$190now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days+$59
14 days+$18
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$26
crypto 26% +$50
sports 15% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 126 -4.2% -13.3% 51% 47% -6.8%
≤30d 138 -3.9% -13.0% 50% 46% -8.7%
≤90d 138 -3.9% -13.0% 50% 46% -8.7%
all 138 -3.9% -13.0% 50% 46% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.0% 46% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 41% -17.5%
15% -28.9% 28% -25.4%
20% -35.9% 21% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$190
Realized+$87
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses69 / 69
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)138 / 140
History coverage8d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day46.5
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $99 $98 −$1 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Under 50¢ 50¢ $91 $92 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$6 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 22 $51 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 22 $21 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 22 $16 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 22 $31 −$8 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 22 $27 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 22 $22 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 22 $15 +$6 +38%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $354 −$115 -33%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $8 $0 -1%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $181 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $206 −$25 -12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $171 +$35 +20%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $122 +$49 +40%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $95 +$27 +28%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $73 +$22 +30%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $58 +$16 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $13 +$9 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$3 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 19 $13 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$3 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 19 $2 +$2 +74%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $28 +$9 +32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $36 −$8 -21%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $33 +$9 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 18 $16 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $6 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 18 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $7 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 18 $8 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$3 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $100 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $92 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 66¢ $93 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $21 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $21 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $18 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $9 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $11 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $11 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $11 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $190.18 · official $190.18 (match) · 409 history records